No matter how hard China tries to keep it together, the balkanization of Pakistan is imminent. The US still has a lot of interest in Pakistan, perhaps due to old ties or because it is an Islamic nation with a declared nuclear weapons system. Whatever the reason may be, the US does not seem to have overriding control over affairs in Pakistan anymore. While the US maintains some influence over the Pakistani Army, the army appears to have lost the respect of the general public. It actually seems as though people are no longer fearful of the Pakistani Army.
The question is, has Pakistan become so lawless and out of control that various terrorist organizations are springing up across the country? Does the Pakistani government or army have no power or authority to control non-state actors within its territory? Is Pakistan losing its significance even in the Islamic world? Has Pakistan become a hub for global terrorism, with various organizations finding safe havens within its borders? Has Pakistan’s failing economy made it even more chaotic than Afghanistan? Is Pakistan on the verge of balkanization, with regions like PoK, the Afg-Pak border, and Balochistan on the brink of breaking away?
Pakistan is facing its worst existential crisis, simultaneously grappling with major challenges on multiple fronts: economic, environmental, political, and military. Therefore, the threat of balkanization of pakistan is very real. It is almost an economic colony of China, with religious fundamentalism exacerbating the situation. The feudal system of the 19th century has not completely disappeared, and administrative institutions, apart from the army, have not evolved. Pakistan’s judiciary and parliament are still largely extensions of the military and remain in a nascent stage. The possibility of movements similar to the ‘Mukti Bahini’ arising in PoK seems strong, given the poor infrastructure development and human rights abuses in the region. Pakistan may balkanize on its own, and faster than we think, though it may unreasonably blame India for it.
Pakistan might also turn to China and Turkey for more drones and radars, and request the US for additional F-16s to safeguard its borders.
