“Right now, China occupies the Bagram airbase and utilises it for nuclear operations.”
-US President Donald Trump
Afghanistan and China: A Chance Venture
The aforementioned statement by a current Head of a State has raised eyebrows in the geopolitical circles of the world. While Chinese incursions have been increasing in the Afghan territory, right since the last of US soldiers left the troubled soil, the extent of the same is relatively unknown up until now. Before understanding the present collaborations and disputes between the two nations, and how these can effect India’s interests, a thorough peek into the historic relationship between the two is a must. China and Afghanistan have been on trading terms since the prevalence of the Silk Road, the route via which major cities/towns/ nations were connected seamlessly, particularly for trade and commerce purposes. However, diplomatic relations between the two established only in the 18th century, when Ahmad Shah Durrani and Qianlong were at the helm of the State affairs, in both the nations, respectively.
Pertinently, today, it must be understood that China is the only country that has given the diplomatic head of Afghanistan on its soil, the credentials of an Ambassador. This is quite different from the viewpoint of other nations, since a very calculated response has been received from all corridors, regarding the present Afghan dispensation. Even though, Afghanistan and China shared cordial relations, their camaraderie was disrupted by the Sino-Soviet split and further by the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan whereby previous structures of establishment were replaced by the Soviet-favouring systemic apparatuses, with China now featuring in the backdrop. Inspite of this, restricted trade relations prospered, but the NATO alliance invasion again threw the Chinese strategic game-plan into the wind. After 2021, the Chinese counterparts have started taking renewed interest in the Afghan territory, and quite possibly would be trying to gain further ground by tough negotiations- as one can notice with CPEC (Chinese Pakistan Economic Corridor- Gawadar port) in Pakistan. Nevertheless, how far China will succeed, remains to be seen. But, the fact that Afghanistan must not be confused with Pakistan and its tendency to cooperate with China, whenever asked- is well known in the diplomatic circles.
The Wakhan Corridor and the Bagram Airbase
Afghanistan is a mineral rich nation and hosts a number of natural resources that can fuel the economic and social development of any other nation, whatsoever. Talking about the Wakhan corridor, it is a narrow strip of land territory that connects Afghanistan to the Xinjiang province of China (through the Wakhjir Pass). Wakhan is a part of the Badakshan province of Afghan territory and being a strategically rich area, is an apple of the eye of a number of neighbouring countries. Not just China and Afghanistan, Wakhan also lies at the crossroads of Tajikistan and Pakistan (Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Gilgit-Baltistan). Notably, Tajikistan is one of the five major Central Asian countries that hosts a mineral rich and heavily resourceful territory, and additionally, is at good terms with India. The other four Central Asian nations are- Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. This showcases how important and indispensable is the territory of Wakhan for future and further development in the region. And whichever nation partners with Afghanistan over the Wakhan corridor, is certainly in a win-win situation.
Being a quintessential part and parcel of the erstwhile Silk Route, Wakhan hold historic significance as well. This, undoubtedly cannot be ignored, especially in the light of the fact that China wants to develop (Belt and Road Initiative) the old Silk Route, to impress upon the importance of its ancient civilization and the Chinese cultural values. China, particularly seeks to establish diplomatic ties with the Afghan governance system, so as to secure and ease out tensions in its own Xinjiang province, along with preventing extremist elements from entering its Muslim province. Chinese regional markets are directly accessible to the Taliban establishment via the Wakhan corridor and on the surface, both are cooperating with each other for development of the same. But, brewing tensions and possible confrontations have cautioned both sides. Xinjiang, for one, is China’s most restive province with clear inclination and demographic dividend being Islam-oriented, and Uighur Muslims majorly residing in the area.
The Taliban government, currently, is more pragmatic in its bilateral relationship with China and is already cautioned by China’s excessive control over Pakistan’s natural resources; clearly wanting to avoid the same fate for itself. China, on its part, would clearly want a more integrated and strategically stablised relationship so as to maintain the essence of-the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), the security of Chinese nationals in Pakistan and those engaged in Afghan projects, and the prevention of cross-infiltration of radical elements into its territory. Morning Post (dated 27th January 2024) reported that China is extremely wary of developing the Wakhan Corridor because the cost of developing the same outweighs the benefit that the it shall provide for the Chinese side. Difficult mountainous topography, heightened security risks, the fall out a number of terrorist groups such as the Islamic State for Khorasan Province (ISKP), and other branches of the Islamic State (ISIS) in Afghanistan and Pakistan- all, but, have alerted the Chinese government. Apart from this, Afghanistan also does not want to serve Wakhan so easily to China, and would definitely want to protect its won territory against increased foreign invasions. However, the all time low relationship between the Pakistani establishment and Afghan rule has cautioned China, along with creating a chaotic situation at this point. Therefore, it can be clearly said that the Wakhan corridor is currently a moot point between both the nations, in light of different interests and priorities being pursued internationally.
As to the Bagram Air field, it hosts one of the longest runways in the world, and is situated in the Parwan province of Afghanistan. Currently controlled by the Afghan Ministry of Defense, it bears witness to the US control of the same, because it was constructed during the Soviet powers during the cold War, but featured prominently during the Soviet-US clash on the soil of Afghanistan. It bears witness to the two-decade long occupation of the Afghan territory. Bagram is a world-class airport base, capable of handling military footfall and equipped with all the technologies and facilities, needed for multifarious purposes, whatsoever. The control of the airbase, however, was handed over to the Taliban after the US exit. Currently, a number of media outlets (The Indian Express, The Economic Times, The Statesman, the Orion Policy Institute, The Independent, etc) have either reported or have on the basis of independent research, concluded that at least one US flight had landed at the airbase, and this might be a covert limited takeover of the base by the US, to maintain its previous hegemony, in the region. Apart from the statement issued by Donald Trump (President, USA), none of the US agencies have clarified their stand or issued any supportive statements regarding the base. However, if this turns out to be true and the US tries to reclaim the airport, the same would a strategic move, the consequences of which would remain to seen. It can also be counter to China’s growing influence in the Pak-Afghan territory and neighbouring areas, where the current US dispensation is interested to engage.
Parting Note: Conclusionary Comment
While the US and China strive to increase their foothold and expand their strategic policies in the Afghan territory, India must hold on to her national foreign policy principles, while also extending the humanitarian hand to Afghanistan, as she has always done. Restrained and calculated responses in light of rapidly changing circumstances, would be the best way forward; apart from actively engaging with the Afghan ruling government, just like a very recent engagement at diplomatic level (8th January, 2025). Afghanistan, has till now, never borne any ill-will towards the Indian government and elected establishment, and the same has been successful in maintaining a balanced approach in the bilateral relations. The policy of equidistant ambivalence, would do good for the bilateral relations, and the same would also to some extent, enable the Indian side in countering the growing China influence in a region, which has always been grateful to India, for her constant humanitarian response, in times of need. However, it would be quite engaging to watch the US-China face-off that is about to emerge out of the situation. To survive diplomatically, Afghanistan wants reliable friends in the international community. But, to accord a legitimate status to the Afghan government, nations would want a piece of the coveted pie too. Nevertheless, how things turn out, and how these criss-cross diplomatic relationships will turn tables upside down, would be an engaging breakthrough amidst the rising trade wars in the world. More so, when nations are at each others neck to extract as much profit as they can, from another’s distant lands. Because as they say, the grass is always greener on the other side.
