Two nuclear-armed states have rubbed their shoulders. While the world expected a nuclear war between the USA and North Korea, the real action seems to be happening far east to the Korean peninsula in the sub-continent. A terror attack, retaliatory Air Strikes and more than 200 cross border firing violations with howitzers blazing, will India and Pakistan really go to war?
On February 14, India was glued to television sets and smartphones with rapt attention. The whole country watched in horror as the media live streamed horrific images from Pulwama in Kashmir, where a Jihadi, indoctrinated and radicalised by Jaish-e-Mohammed, had carried out a suicide attack killing at least 40 CRPF jawans.
As the country simmered in anticipation of a military operation to retaliate against the perpetrator of the attack – Jaish and their supporter and master – Pakistan, the Indian military forces pulled off one of the most daring military operations. In a cross border precision airstrike on February 26, the Indian Air Force (IAF) targeted a known terror camp of Jaish in Balakot in Mansehra district of Pakistan. Located tens of kilometres deep inside sovereign Pakistan territory in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, Balakot was a known terror installation not only to India but also to the international community.
The Balakot strike was a major hit to Pakistan’s pseudo image of a major military power. Pakistan had never expected a strike deep inside its sovereign territory, let alone an air strike, for which Indian aircraft had to cross the Line of Control (LOC). India had drawn a new clear red line in its fight against terrorism. The strikes undoubtedly had escalated tensions between the two nuclear armed neighbours.
But India’s strike was targeting a non-military installation. After all, Balakot was a known terror training camp that already was on the radar of several intelligence agencies across the globe. After Jaish had openly claimed responsibility to the dastardly attack, India had gained the moral high ground for a retaliatory strike.
The reaction of the international community to the strike itself stands as testimony to India’s gains on international forums. The attack and the unprecedented support India garnered even from countries such as Saudi, which had for years vicariously backed Pakistan in the Kashmir dispute, sent shockwaves across Pakistan’s deep state establishment. Their decision to target Indian security forces and to murder them in cold blood had blown right back for Pakistan’s ISI, a known terror sponsor and supporter.
India through the strikes had also called out Pakistan’s nuclear blackmail. Pakistani Generals had for years believed that air strikes on targets across the LoC was high up in the escalation ladder. But India had resorted to this option, shattering the tactical threshold, which was firmly in place for almost four decades. India’s operation had effectively set a new tone and direction for South East Asia’s regional stability.
All through the year, dissent in Pakistan against its Army was gaining significant traction as population suffered in a largely under-developed Pakistan. The Balakot strike soon changed the whole equation for GHQ.
Pakistani citizens had realised that their country was a sitting duck in Indian military’s crosshairs. Years of war rhetoric from Rawalpindi appeared as a mere publicity stunt by the Army for them.
With growing dissent, Pakistan on February 27 launched an air strike against India, to save face with its population. At around 10:00 Hrs, a large package of Pakistani fighter aircraft, consisting of F-16s, JF-17s and Mirage – 5s, made an ingress into Indian air space west of Rajouri in Sunderbani area. The attack, however, was repelled by the IAF, which fielded its Su-30 MKIs, Mirage – 2000 and MiG-21s to intercept and deter the intruding hostile aircraft.
The aircraft’s intended targets, all vital Indian military installations, a brigade HQ, battalion HQ besides forward defences and a logistics installation, all remained undamaged even though the Pakistani aircraft jettisoned their payloads close to these targets.
The ensuing aerial battle over the skies of Rajouri witnessed a rare aerial dogfight between Indian and Pakistani aircraft. The IAF aircraft following the interception of the Pak aircraft, challenged them as they had crossed the LoC. Facing a formidable fighting force, Pakistani pilots resorted to firing multiple US-origin AMRAAM (Advanced Medium Range Air-to-Air Missile) targeting IAF aircraft. In self-defence, a legendary MiG-21 Bison aircraft piloted by Wing Commander Abhinandan Verma fired a R-73 Air-to-Air missile and successfully shot down a much more advanced F-16 fighter. Unfortunately, Wg Cdr Verma’s aircraft picked up enemy fire and he was forced to eject from his aircraft. The wind acting against him, he landed in Pakistan and was held captive by Pakistani Army for over 48 hours.
As these events unfolded over the course of a fortnight, a fog of war had descended over the sub-continent. By March 1, India and Pakistan, who amongst them share more than 250 nuclear warheads, were closer than ever to a full-fledged conflict.
While the international community stepped in seeking peace between the ever hostile neighbours, India made it clear that it entertained no mediation from any third party over Jammu and Kashmir issues. After all, India had through the course of the operations maintained that its aerial operations were only pre-emptive in nature and for self-defence.
Over the days, the escalation at the border region has only increased in tempo, even after both sides have repeatedly call upon each other for restraint. The troubled LoC has witnessed more than 200 cross border firing violation (CFV) since the Pulwama attack.
In clear provocation of established protocols, Pakistan has repeatedly targeted Indian civilian population. Deadly mortar shells landing from across the border have fatally wounded several civilians in Jammu and Kashmir. Pakistan has also deployed its artillery along the frontlines in an increased number. Occasional artillery barrage is also being witnessed at the LoC.
Since Pakistan re-deployment of troops along the LoC from the Western sector, India has increased alert levels across its theatres. The Army itself has rolled in the dreaded 155mm/45-cal Bofors artillery guns to effectively answer Pakistan’s repeated CFV violations. Active use of these bigger guns definitely remain a cause of concern.
The forward operating bases of the Air Force are also on a never before witnessed alert level. Several CAP missions are being under taken by IAF close to the LoC in an effort to throat any misadventures of Pakistan. Multiple surveillance drones operated by Pakistan violating the LoC have been shot down not only along the LoC but also in the much more peaceful Southern theatre. Action in the Southern theatre, spread across Rann of Kutch and the That desert, definitely indicate that all is not well between the neighbours.
On the maritime front, both the Indian and Pakistani Navy are deployed on high operational readiness status. Fearing a repeat of Operation Trident and Operation Python, in which Indian Navy ships had struck the port Karachi during the 1971 Indo-Pak war, the entire Pakistani Navy is at sea.
The Indian Navy has decided to forward deploy its assets along the Western theatre. Following an administrative pause to the ongoing TROPEX exercise, frontline battleships of the Navy have taken positions right from the Malacca Straits up to the Persian Gulf and stand ready to enforce a formidable naval blockade if called upon.
Can India and Pakistan afford to go to war?
Since the Pulwama attack, Pakistan has desperately tried to reach out to India. Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan has repeatedly called for peace. The release of Wing Commander Abhinandan Verma was also termed as a peace gesture by PM Khan. But is Pakistan really vying for peace? YES. But only because India has forced Pakistan to that situation.
The new posture taken by India to punitively strike deep inside Pakistan has rattled PM Khan. While the growing dissent amongst the civilian population is threatening the future of his Government, it is also undermining his position in the country.
Further, a prolonged heightened state of alert and skirmishes along the borders will have an undesirable effect on Pakistan’s already strangled economy. Every single day of skirmish with India, which requires Pakistan firing costly artillery shells and flying hours of fuel guzzling fighter aircraft on CAP, will drain the state coffers off several million dollars.
The economic situation of Pakistan, according to economic experts, is definitely headed towards a deep abyss following this episode of conflict with India, As such, Pakistan’s economy prior to Pulwama was in tatters prior to Pulwama attack. It has made significant strides towards certain bankruptcy, which threatens to put Pakistani civilians to years of trouble.
With the international community driving throngs on his Government and the Pakistani Army, there is hardly any option for PM Khan. A certain sect of Indian population, including Shah Faizal, topper of the 2010 UPSC exam, have to under that it is only in this backdrop that PM Khan is vying for peace and has emerged as a self-proclaimed peace activists.
For India, the conflict definitely is a burden. But years of unprecedented economic growth have meant that India can sustain these limited occasional flare-ups.
