In a bold move, Russia has engaged in fresh hostilities with Ukraine, by launching a new intermediate-range ballistic missile, named, the Oreshnik. The attack happened last Thursday and signaled a new era of aggression. This comes only days after Kyiz utilized U.S. and U.K.-supplied missiles to target Russian installations in the region. The strike was followed by an address from the Russian President, Vladimir Putin, who announced the deployment during a nationally televised address, clearly warning that the missile is capable of bypassing Western Air Defense Systems.
“We believe that we have the right to use our weapons against military facilities of the countries that allow to use their weapons against our facilities,” Putin
Strategic Capabilities of the Oreshnik
The Oreshnik, which is named after the hazelnut tree, is capable of traveling at ten times the speed of 10 (MACH 10). The missile can easily carry both conventional and nuclear warheads and poses a significant challenge to existing air defense technology. According to the Pentagon Deputy Press Secretary, Sabrina Singh, the Oreshnik is based on an existing Russian technology, RS-26 Rubezh ICBM. She also raised concerns over the new intermediate-range ballistic missile, calling it a “new and concerning lethal capability.” The U.S. was notified of the launch via nuclear risk reduction channels. This also emphasizes the need for proper communication to prevent unintended escalations.
Targeted Strike in Ukraine
The Oreshnik struck a missile manufacturing facility in Dnipro, Ukraine, and was a retaliatory attack following a recent strike by Ukraine on Russian ammunition depots and security personnel. This also reiterated Russia’s stance on external threats, as President Putin stated, “In the event of an escalation of aggressive actions, we will respond decisively and in kind.”
It should be noted that Kremlin first denied any prior notifications were given to the U.S., regarding the Oreshnik’s launch, however it later recanted that a 30-minute warning was issued.
Escalation of Threats
Military experts, such as Matthew Savill, the director of military sciences at the Royal United Services Institute, believe that the use of IRBMs like Oreshnik is much about posturing as a strategy. He believes that the recent strike serves as a warning to Ukraine and its Western allies that Russia is “happy to enter into a competition around intermediate-range ballistic missiles. P.S. These could be nuclear-tipped. Do you really want to take that risk?”
These IRBMs are capable of high-speed attacks and can carry multiple warheads, potentially nuclear ones, making it far more challenging to successfully intercept them. Although Ukraine has demonstrated such capabilities in the past when it intercepted advanced weapons like the Kinzhal hypersonic missile, Oreshnik is an all-new threat, altogether.
Western Responses and Risks of Escalation
The recent launch has already added fuel to the fire that was previously stoked by America’s authorization of Ukraine’s use of long-range missiles within Russian territory. The White House Press Secretary, Karine Jean-Pierre, countered Russia’s claim of Western escalation. She stated, “They’re the ones who are escalating this,” citing the recent flood of North Korean troops sent to the region.
Ukraine’s Reaction
Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has condemned the attack, calling it a demonstration of Moscow’s disregard for civilian safety.
“Today, our crazy neighbor once again showed what he really is, and how afraid he is.” – Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy
Although observers argue that the Western-supplied weapons do give Ukraine some strategic advantage, they are unlikely to shift the war’s trajectory.
Outlook
As the conflict has gone over 1000 days, Russia has continued to maintain an edge, leveraging its large armed forces to advance in key areas like Donetsk. But, the Western nod to the use of more advanced weaponry does complicate Russia’s logistics and exposes its potential vulnerabilities. However, the deployment of Oreshnik signifies the evolving nature of this conflict. The heightened tensions can give way to broader global conflict.
