“National security is vital for economic and social progress.” – Paul Kagame
Introduction
What does former Balochistan Chief Minitser Akhtar Mengal means when he states that Pakistan has lost control over Balochistan, and announces this in front of the whole world, unapologetically? What does it mean when reports start pouring in that Pakistan has lost control over atleast seven provinces in Balochistan, completely and absolutely? Has the insurgency taken over Balochistan so badly that now re-routing the Balochis towards Pakistan’s central regime is near, impossible? What does the Jaffer Express hijacking really means for Balochistan and Pakistan, both in the future?
Is the world going to witness the predicted balkanisation of Pakistan, sooner than later? Is Pakistan losing control over Balochistan? Well, the world somehwere or the else, knows the answers to these questions; and it does not take more than one cursory look at the present situation, to establish what is going to happen in the future. While Akhtar Mengal’s words might have worried Islamabad, they have actually reaffirmed the predictions and statements of diplomacy experts. But what has actually irked the central administration in Pakistan, is the sheer strength that the Balochi insurgents have showcased in the recent train hijack. While the reasons behind the strong action taken with Jaffer Express are quite clear, what needs to be discussed is the future of the relationship between Balochistan and Pakistan.
A Deeper Look into the Rising Conflict
In crystal clear words, Mengal stated that, “there is not a single inch of Balochistan that can be claimed by Pakistan as its own. They have lost the war, irreversibly and completely. It cannot be undone.” This statement was boldly flashed across platforms with the world in awe, disbelief, and suitable predictability recognising the obvious turn of events, that was meant to happen one day. Mengal is highly respected inside and outside the jurisdiction of Balochistan, mostly because of his clear-cut analysis of the issues plaguing Balochistan. The basic reason behind rising predictions of disintegration of Balochistan from Pakistan, is the attitude of Islamabad itself. Nobody wants or likes to be oppressed, silenced, or killed.
But these are the same things that are happening in Balochistan since the past many years, with Pakistani establishment orchestrating the whole drama, effortlessly. And now, the time to repay the sins has arrived, or so does it look like. As reported, the insurgency and unrest in Balochistan seems to have grown, and is still growing beyond imagination. Mengal further articulates that the policies of repression and exploitation have led to a situation that has now spiraled, boomeranged and snowballed into an infinite chaos.
As reported by Business Standard, (12 March, 2025), Mengal was elected to the National Assembly of Pakistan in February 2024, and had resigned from his seat in September, boldly citing the deteriorating security situation and the continued disappearances of Baloch activists. The veteran leader from Balochistan had expressed disappointment with Islamabad’s handling of the province, as reported. In his own words, “it has become increasingly clear that our attempts to speak or protest are met with hostility; our people are either silenced, labeled as traitors, or worse, killed.”
Balochistan is undoubtedly the most resource-rich, and naturally gifted region of Pakistan. It is one of the most beautiful and naturally rich province of the country. However, it stands expolited and under-utilised. The resources, for one are not used for the population residing in provinces, and the people themselves, are not being able to find concrete employment opportunities out of their region. The Balochis recognise themselves with a larger Balochi sentiment that resides not just in Paksitan, but is also found in Afghanistan and Iran.
This sentiment identifies itself with an ancient tribal-feudal system of governance that has till now managed to maintain the unique Balochi identity in the region. Therefore, the anger of Balochis is quite understandable when this unique identity is trying to be broken by the central Pakistani establishment. The region has seen multiple uprisings against the Pakistani rule since 1948, with the latest raging on since 2003. One of the most relevant nationalist insurgency group is Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) that routinely accuses the Paksitani establishment of exploiting the region’s resources while also aiding Pakistan’s newfound ally China in gaining traction in the resource-rich province.
Which province, in all its sanity is going to favour this action of betraying one’s own people? Who would like foreigners gaining benefits from one’s own land? None, whatsoever. The ancient land of one’s ancestors is the most beloved possession of a community. Nobody wants the same to be disintegrated, dismembered, and exploited mercilessly- and that too, without permission.
Parting Note
The whole sardari-feudal lord system is a very old setup that has governed Balochistan, since a very long time. The tribal chiefs, and the sardars were long supported by the British for ensuring control over this resource-rich area. However the same denigrated the geopolitical situation, as well. Pakistan has a long history of extracting wealth from the region, and the same is being done by the way of initiating relationship between Pakistan and China in the form of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). The same is being corroborated by the development at Gwadar Port, Chinese-backed development in Pakistan.
A bird’s eye view of the whole situation elaborates a telling tale of a failing Pakistani state. The train hijacking, the disconnect between Pakistan and Balochistan, the Balochi insurgency, the incoming of the chinese and the recurrent attacks on them, the exploitation of resources, the unemployment crisis, the statements of a veteran Baloch leader, and many other reasons are enough to establish what is going to happen in the future. The day is not far when another country is added and made a part of the United Nations General Assembly. Till then, the best option is to, wait and watch the situation unfolding.
