(This is an analysis after research and output of experience. Not a gospel fact but a conjecture)
The Group of five/six militants had been in the vicinity hiding in the Jungles for two days prior to the attack. Four Pakistani and one/two local. Weapons were with four only. May be the other two have UBGL or pistol.
They carried out close recce. It’s a Squad led by a Capt from 3 SSG. They crossed over from across the LAC and includes personnel who have operated in this area previously. They have special instructions not to be captured “dead or alive”!
As you drive North from Anantnag to Pahalgam there are places off the main road where small groups of tourists trek or ride on ponies to enjoy the scenic beauty. The #Baisaran Valley is one such place with beautiful meadows. Local agents guide tourists to such awesome spots and eating joints located there.
Now CRPF and Police take care of this area, however an effective QRT was not earmarked. The tourist season has been in full flow since a few weeks preceding the Amarnath Yatra and QRT should have been around. The state police did not have a single police out post in the area.
Anyway, the terrorists divided themselves into three groups of two each and only one in each group has an AK47, the other one did not have a visible weapon. My calculated guess is they have 4 AK, 2 UBGL, 2 Pistol, and some grenades.
They tried to save bullets because they know they will need them later. My guess is they have not fired more than two magazines. They killed/ injured 40+ and used maximum 60 bullets for the same. AK big Magzine has capacity of 30 only and generally 26 are only filled. They know they will require these bullets later. In think they have atleast 4 magzines per person. 20 magzines can not be ruled out.
They must have had a hideout in the forest, which obviously a local OGW must have made, must be near to the meadow. Hope security forces have found it.
They also must be having a mid point #hideout. They may use the mountainous spurs to go towards Doda or Anantnag. Human intelligence is most required now.
(PS: I have a strong suspicion that they are 6 and not 4. The other two have kept themselves slightly covert, with smaller weapons, generally terrorists do that. Then they divide and go in different directions)
