Killing of Hamas Leader Inside Iran Raises Fear of Larger Regional Conflict
Israel appears to have eliminated Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh using an airborne guided projectile in an early morning attack. Haniyeh was in Iran for the Iranian president’s swearing-in ceremony as a state guest and was staying in a residence for veterans. Events in the Middle East are taking a dangerous turn, making it conceivable that Iran may soon be part of a major regional conflict. Direct confrontations between Hezbollah and Israel are already underway in Lebanon. The US has moved its aircraft carriers to the region to bolster the defense of Israel, indicating that a major regional war in the Middle East looks imminent.
However, Israel has not yet taken responsibility for the strike. Israel has accused Iran of harboring Hamas leaders like Haniyeh and has openly vowed to eliminate them. Israel’s reluctance to take responsibility for the attack suggests it wants to avoid direct confrontation with Iran at this time. Nonetheless, there are few who believe that Israel is not responsible for the killing of the Hamas political leader. Palestinian Prime Minister Mohammad Mustafa has condemned the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, calling it a violation of international law.
This act is clearly a grave violation of Iran’s sovereignty and the supposed security bubble of the Iranian capital. Haniyeh, normally based in Qatar, was the face of international diplomacy for Hamas and had been involved in internationally brokered indirect talks aimed at reaching a ceasefire in the Palestinian enclave. This killing appears to set back the chances of any ceasefire agreement in the ongoing conflict in Gaza and Lebanon. Iran has declared three days of national mourning and blamed the US for providing Israel with the missiles used in the attack, thus holding it directly responsible. The US has moved its forces to protect Israel from what they call a coordinated attack by Iran and its proxies. The killing of Haniyeh complicates the task of de-escalation, deterrence, and dissuasion towards war, which is the goal of the UN and the international community. It provides those who want to escalate the conflict with the justification to scuttle chances of peace and fuel further attacks.
The immediate consequences of this escalation are significant. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will gain support from the far-right in Israel, potentially pushing for deeper attacks into Lebanon. Hezbollah will find legitimacy in targeting any possible Israeli targets, both civilian and military. Iran might directly use its missiles against Israel, measuring effectiveness by the number of civilians killed. The Houthis will likely increase attacks on commercial ships in the Red Sea, leading to global economic disruptions. Palestinians will face even greater shortages of food and medicine, while receiving little more than lip service from the international community. Oil prices will rise, benefiting some economically, while more advanced weaponry will be used to kill people more efficiently. The media may find more areas too dangerous to cover, and schools and hospitals may be targeted more frequently under the pretext of harboring terrorists. Stock markets will suffer, with retail investors losing money. In the US, political leaders will blame each other for the escalation, focusing on what is needed to secure votes. The UN is likely to appear even more helpless. Ultimately, humanity will be disgraced as it becomes increasingly desensitized to acts of inhuman violence.
US aircraft carriers have already been deployed to safeguard Israel’s territorial integrity. Calls for unity in the name of religion will likely divide humanity further, resulting in more deaths.
Some people in India might view Haniyeh’s killing as a great act of bravery and suggest that the political hierarchy replicate such an attack. However, they fail to realize that Israel has been fighting for its existence and has not experienced peace since its establishment. In contrast, India is at peace and its existence is not under threat, so acting in a whimsical manner would be unwise.
