The abrogation of Article – 370 and 35A is being termed a historic moment in India’s post-independence history. While the NDA – III Government has successfully delivered one of its most demanding Poll promises, what will the abrogation mean to the future of the Valley?
July and August are undoubtedly the most demanding times for Indian security forces deployed in the restive state of Jammu and Kashmir. It is in these two months that tens of thousands of pilgrims from across the country descend upon the valley to undertake the Amarnath Yatra. For India’s Hindu population, a trek to the Amarnath Shrine, which is considered to be one of the most holiest shrines of Lord Shiva, remains to be one of the holiest yatra.
Pilgrims on the yatra to reach the Bolenath shrine situated at about 12,000 feet above sea level in the Anantnag district of J&K not only have to brave the treacherous and dangerous climb but also the grave threat of terrorism. For years, the Amarnath Yatra has been struck in throes of terrorism and insurgency, having been targeted on multiple occasions leading to the death several innocent devotees.
In an effort to make the yatra safe and abate terrorists, the Union Government has every year deployed tens of thousands of troops in the Valley. In line with this practise, the Union Ministry of Home Affairs pushed in around 25,000 Central Paramilitary Police Force (CAPF) to ensure the safety of pilgrims along the yatra route. The Indian Army under the aegis of the Udhampur-based Northern Command also pumped in about 10,000 troops in preparation to the annual yatra. Thus, by the beginning go the Yatra in July, there was at least 40,000 additional troops on the ground in the valley.
It was around this time that Kashmir witnessed several high-level visits including those by MHA Amit Shah, Chief of the Army Staff (COAS) General Bipin Rawat and National Security Advisor (NSA) Ajit Doval. NSA Doval, one of the Prime Minister’s most trusted aide, held successive security review meets with top J&K security officials. While the Government was pushing for holding local municipal elections in the valley, the NDA Government also was making a strong push to extend the term of President’s rule in the Valley.
The Minister of State for Home Affairs (MoS – MHA) G Krishna Reddy on July 24, 2019 replying to a query regarding the security situation in the Rajya Shabha said that the overall situation had drastically improved on the ground corresponding to the situation in 2018. He elaborated that the security forces had by July, 2019 hunted down 126 terrorists, meaning an increase of 22% in neutralisation of terrorists.
But the actions of the Government the very next day stood contrary to these promising claims. On July 25, 2019, the MHA ordered at least 100 companies (10,000 troops) of CAPF to immediately deploy to the valley. Almost simultaneously, the Army and Air Force was also put on high alert. The Army’s XV and XVI Corps were also ordered to deploy forces and strengthen strategic locations along the LoC. This increased troop movement made way for rumours of the Union Government making a major move against terror locations across the border.
By August 1st, the Government had ordered an additional 250 CAPF companies (25,000 troops) to move into the valley. Strategic lift aircraft of the Air Force such as the C-17 and C-130J were deposed to assist the massive mobilisation of the forces. This umpteen jump in the forces across the valley set the alarm bells ringing across the country.
While many discussed about an unprecedented increase in anti-terror operations in the restive Anantnag, Baramulla, Shopian and Bandipore districts, the power corridors in New Delhi were abuzz with rumours of a major move by the Government to restructure the administrative machinery in the Valley.
By August, the LoC had heated up considerably. Multiple infiltration attempts by Pakistan’s Border Action Team (BAT) were being reported from across multiple sectors. Instances of Cross-border Firing Violation (CFV) had also seen an alarming several fold rise since the Government’s Balakot operations.
On August 2, 2019, the Government of Jammu and Kashmir issued an alarming security advisory through which it ordered evacuation of all tourists and yatra pilgrims from the state citing prevailing security conditions. The curtailment of the yatra and almost forces evacuation of the yatris only helped the rumours gain much more ground. Lt Gen KJS Dillion, Commanding Officer of the Army’s 15th Corps, and Dilbagh Singh, the DGP of J&K Police addressing a press conference announced that joint operations by the forces had led to the discovery of a Remington M-24 sniper rifle and anti-personnel land mines along the yatra route.
Even as the evacuation of the yatris began on a war footing from the valley, far away in New Delhi the country’s national security establishment was in a huddle. Member of the CCS, the three service chiefs, intelligence agencies and the NSA had met multiple times in the North and South Block since the orders for mobilisation had been issued.
When the Government almost simultaneously convened an emergency cabinet meet and ordered for immediate house arrest of countless separatist activists in J&K besides detaining both Mehbooba Mufti and Omar Abdullah, it was crystal clear that the Government was at the cusp of making a historical move. Former Chief Minister of J&K and Leader of the National Congress Omar Abdullah in a statement said, “To the people of Kashmir, we don’t know what is in store for us but I am a firm believer that whatever Almighty Allah has planned it is always for the better, we may not see it now but we must never doubt his ways. Good luck to everyone, stay safe & above all PLEASE STAY CALM.”
The Union Government, however, held its cards close to the chest. Nothing seemed really certain. While many quarters rumoured of action along the LoC, others whispered of an onslaught against radicalised OGWs and others of a radical move to abrogate Article 370 and 35A. Final strokes to the secretive operations were delivered on the intervening nights of August 4 and 5th, when through an unprecedented order it ordered the immediate suspension of mobile services across the state and imposed restrictions on movement of civilians under Section 144.
As the nation awaited with abetted breath, the PMO convened an urgent cabinet meeting on the morning of August 5 at 7 LKM, the PM’s official residence. The Government almost simultaneously also convened an urgent Parliament session for what was only termed as discussion of a “major policy decision”.
Even as chaos ensued on the ground in the valley, Union Home Minister Amit Shah took to the floor of the Rajya Sabha to announce the abrogation of Article 370 and 35A, through constitutional and presidential orders. The move, a politically charged and strategic decision, would not only rewrite the history of J&K but also of the country.
Introducing what he termed as historic and promising legislative bills, MHA Amit Shah moved a resolution that would immediately remove the special status granted to the state of Jammu and Kashmir under Article 370. This also meant that Article – 35A which had been derived from Article – 370 would also be effectively abrogated.
The President of the Republic of India Ram Nath Govind exercising powers bestowed up on his office through the Article – 370 (1)(d) passed a presidential order called the Constitution (application to Jammu and Kashmir) to amend the Article 367 of the constitution which effectively meant that the entirety of Indian Constitution would apply to J&K.
Article 370, which was introduced in the Constitution on October 7, 2019, had effectively exempted application of the entirety of the Indian Constitution in the state of J&K. Article – 370, which also formed the basis for annexation of J&K to the Union Republic of India, also allowed the state of J&K to almost have its own constitution as it had severely restricted country’s Parliament’s legislative powers. Every law passed by Indian lawmakers needs further consent of J&K’s legislative assembly before being enacted in the state.
Article – 35A, which was introduced in 1954 through a Presidential Order, had given the J&K Government to define state’s permanent residents, special rights and provisions bestowed upon them. The NDA Government had for long batted to neutralising these special provisions, which it termed stood in the way of complete unification of the J&K state with India.
Another strategic move of the Union Government was the introduction of the J&K bifurcation bill which effectively laid grounds to bifurcate the current J&K state into two Union Territory (UT). Changing the political dynamics of the state, the Government decided to notify the region of J&K as a UT with legislature, while Ladakh would be a UT without a legislature. This move effectively meant that the entire J&K state was brought under the direct control of the Union Government.
While the Government’s politically charged move was received with appreciation almost across the country, devoid of the political fault lines, the move was met with stiff opposition in Jammu and Kashmir, the Ladakh region being an exception. While a majority of the opposition parties welcomed the abrogation and termed it a victory to India, Congress, TMC, Left and NCP remained in steadfast opposition to the Government’s decision.
On the ground in J&K much of the population remained obnoxious to history unfolding in the country as the entire state was under a communication blockade. Informed political leaders such as Mehbooba Mufti, former CM of J&K and leader of Peoples Democratic Party, crying foul of the Government’s move, tweeted “Today marks the darkest day in Indian democracy. Decision of J&K leadership to reject 2 nation theory in 1947 & align with India has backfired. Unilateral decision of GOI to scrap Article 370 is illegal & unconstitutional which will make India an occupational force in J&K.”
While Prime Minister Narendra Modi termed the removal of Article 370 and 35A within 10 weeks of forming his new Government as an important step towards realising Sardar Patel’s “ek bharat, shresta bharat” vision, it was certain that the state of J&K was yet again slipping into a long period of uncertainty. The Government through smart legislative manoeuvring has no doubt gained the initial lead, but it is also important that the security concerns steaming from the decision need to be answered effectively.
It is almost certain that once the communication blockade and restrictions on civilian movement is lifted there will be a manifold increase in violence across the Valley. The districts of Anantnag, Baramulla, Shopian and Bandipore, which have a strong supporting base for separatists, are prone to violence. Since the 90s, it is from these districts that every violent protest have taken shape. It remains critical that Government rejigs the security grid in the region to quell any such protests.
The Government has already learnt a fair share of lessons from its failure in quelling the protests in 2016 that erupted across the Valley following the encounter of Burhan Wani, a dreaded A++ category terrorist, who also was a poster boy for the radicalised factions in the Valley. Multiple reports by security forces following the 2016 protests had noted the strong support from factions operating from Anantnag and Shopian districts.
Several Government officials serving in the MHA have revealed that the Government does not have a clear end-state picture in play. This, the officials say, is because of the extremely volatile and dynamic situation that prevails in the Valley. Thus it is not known as to when the communication blockade and the restrictions in effect across the Valley will be eased. It for certain that these backbreaking restrictions will not rolled out at least for the foreseeable future.
While the communication blockade was imposed taking into account the rampant use of technology by protestors to meticulously plan and organise themselves, the civilian movement restrictions are in place to avoid giving any grounds to public gatherings that can then turn violent. These blockades have, however, meant that the normal life across the Valley has come to a sudden standstill. Business establishments have all been forced to shutter their shops since August 4. This has meant that businesses will lose the brisk shopping season of the Eid festive. While many of the offices are closed, educational institutions have also downed their shutters since August 4. Reports from the ground have confirmed that the local population are being deprived off even basic medical care facilities.
These restrictions, in a state like J&K, where the population is alienated and non-receptive to even the most basic developmental activities launched by the Union Government will only get further alienated from the country’s mainstream population. A prolonged restrictive period in the valley will mean that the population will eventual be forced to term this period of uncertainty as an effort to detain and deny them off their basic fundamental rights.
In a state which has a strong receptive base for separatists movement it remains critical that the Government does not make way for such reprehensions. Even as the Valley wakes up to the news, separatists are already making a call for coming out in arms against the Union’s decision. Separatists leader SG Lone, who is currently under detention, speaking about the abrogation of Article 370, said “It’s one of the darkest days I or my ancestors have seen since 1957. I can’t believe that one fine day you get up and find that you’ve been robbed of your special status. Now you’re a Union Territory. All powers have been taken away from you.”
These provocative statements by leaders such as Lone, who hold sway in the Valley, can tip the scale of balance. It remains critical that the Government besides quelling these sentiments should move onto reaching out to the local population and addressing their concerns.
Without the means to earn their livelihood a major part of the Valley will struggle to go about their day-to-day life. The local administration could reach out to these lower sections of the society helping them in securing ration and essential medical supplies, at least until the business centres in the Valley spring back to life. Further, with Eid festive, which is one of the most revered festivals in the Muslim community, around the corner, the Government will have to make efforts to ensure the local population celebrates the festive with minimal struggle. Failure to address these socio-economic concerns across the Valley, specially so in the restive districts of Kashmir, will make ground for possible legitimacy to the separatists.
The Government’s move to change the status-quo in the Valley in a single definitive move has definitely set-off the scales across the border in Pakistan. For years, Pakistan’s proxies had coerced the local population. Since the abrogation, Pakistan’s Government has repeatedly called India’s move hostile and racist action and is going all out internationalise the Kashmir issue.
Playing the religious card, PM Imran Khan addressing the joint session of his country’s Parliament said that the move was instigated by RSS, which wants India only for Hindus and any Muslims there would be treated as second-class citizens. He went on to term the Government’s decision as a ‘jihad’ on the local population. While this irrational theory of a failed PM will find no ground with the rationals, it might not be the case with the Valley’s coerced and radicalised population.
The troubled neighbour of India, which is a known terror sponsor and paradise for extremists, is bound to make all-out efforts to disturb the peace in the Valley. PM Khan’s threatening statements of another Pulwama and bloodbath in the Valley stand testimony to these reservations. The ISI, perpetrator of terrorism, is bound to increase it support to insurgency manifold. There has already been an alarming increase in infiltration attempts along the troubled LoC. For Pakistan, the eventual complete integration of Kashmir with the mainstream of population of India will mean a death kneel to its efforts of annexing Kashmir. The Government will have to deny and desist any grounds to Pakistan and proxies as it deals with the developing situation on the ground.
Further, the Government will also have to be careful about Pakistan’s agenda to internationalise the issue of Kashmir. Pakistan has already reached out to UN, besides a handful of other nations, since the abrogation. Khan’s Government has called up on these nations to take note of what it terms as human right and fundamental right abuse. While none of the super powers nor the UN has endorsed Pakistan’s views, the slightest mistake by the Union Government could help Pakistan gain strategic ground on international forums.
The Ministry of External Affairs (MEA), guided by the eminent hand of EAM S Jaishankar, is expected to mount a diplomatic blitzkrieg in the run up to the upcoming UN General Assembly. The MEA has since the abrogation actively reached out to diplomatic missions of multiple countries to explain India’s position. It has this far succeeded in quelling in any international onslaught to the developing situation.
While the abrogation of Article 370 and 35A is a monumental moment in the Valley’s history it also has all the proponents to plunge the Valley into dark ages, if the arising security situation is not better managed by the Government. It remains crucial that the Government eventually takes the local population and political parties under its strides to prepare grounds for a prospers future for the Valley.
