We at Life of Soldiers will continue to focus on China. Disengagement is just a small part of a larger gambit of events.
China is currently rattled. Coming February and March, it is likely to start exerting pressure at various strategic points.
The factors troubling China are:
- The Russia-Ukraine war is nearing its end, with 80% of Ukraine remaining uncaptured. China fears a similar outcome concerning Taiwan.
- Taiwan’s significant contribution to Ukraine in terms of semiconductors and its rise in prominence is unsettling for China.
- The ongoing trade war with the U.S. will impact China more adversely.
- China’s economy is slowing down, and the stimulus measures have failed to restore momentum.
- Several countries, including Japan, Australia, the Philippines, Tibet, Bhutan, and India, have significant issues with China.
- A reconciliation between Russia and the U.S. would severely undermine China’s interests.
- China’s undervalued currency is due for revaluation in 2025, which could further strain its economy.
- The economic and military rise of India in 2025 and 2026 is inevitable, which deeply unsettles China.
China may have decided to take one step at a time. While the dragon appears to be focusing on Taiwan for now, it is only a matter of time before its attention shifts back to India.
We must not let our guard down. China is a natural adversary to India as both nations compete in similar arenas with limited avenues for collaboration.
