In a recent attack from Ukraine targeting the Russian military airfield in the Rostov region, tensions have once again heightened. As a result, Russia vows to retaliate in force. Just last month, Russia tested its latest intermediate-range ballistic missile, Oreshnik, following a fresh round of hostilities. After that attack, President Vladimir Putin even went on national television to rebuke Ukraine and warned the enemy that he would launch a hypersonic ballistic missile at the center of Kyiv if Ukraine did not halt its attacks on Russian territory using US-supplied ATACMS missiles. This was followed by an airstrike targeting energy installations in Ukraine.
However, soon after, Ukraine once again used the same ATACMS missiles to engage Russia. These missiles are supplied by the US, and Ukraine has just been granted permission to use them in its ongoing conflict with Russia. In the wake of the recent attacks, it’s been estimated that soon Russia will retaliate and that too decisively. Even a US official warned that Russia might soon retaliate using its latest nuclear-capable Oreshnik missiles and target another Ukrainian city.
Tension Heighten As Russia Vows To Retaliate
According to the Russian Ministry of Defense, the country was attacked by Ukraine, as six ATACMS missiles were launched against a military installation in the port city of Taganrog. Out of these six missiles, two were intercepted mid-way by the Pantsir air defense system, while the Russian electronic warfare defense system deflected the rest. No injuries were reported as a result of these strikes, although the military installation suffered some minor damage due to the falling debris. In an official statement, Russia declared:
This attack by Western long-range weapons will not go unanswered and appropriate measures will be taken.
Kyiv’s Counteroffensive
The attack was celebrated by the Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelensky. In a post on Telegram, President Zelensky stated that they have hit “military facilities on the territory of Russia, as well as facilities of the fuel and energy complex, which is working for aggression against our state and people.” He recognized them as “tangible blows” against Russia, that will help bring peace closer.
Intensifying Aerial Warfare
During the last month, both sides have intensified their aerial campaigns, looking for advantages. This increase in air strikes follows growing talks of a ceasefire pushed by international stakeholders. In fact, the U.S. President-Elect, Donald Trump has stated that he is willing to find ground for a mutual ceasefire, hence pushing for a peaceful resolution of this conflict.
The Russian air strikes have already resulted in 9 casualties in Zaporizhzhia as Moscow claims to have captured two villages in the Kursk region, significantly hampering Ukraine’s cross-border operations.
Diplomatic Woes Amid Conflict
Despite best efforts by international parties, any chance for a diplomatic resolution of this conflict seems slim. In a recent call with the Hungarian Prime Minister, Viktor Orban, Russian President Vladimir Putin criticized Kyiv’s “destructive” stance. He further made his point, arguing that a peace agreement is unattainable as long as Ukraine maintains its aggressive stance. In an official statement, Russia said that Prime Minister Orban had “expressed interest in assisting the joint search for political-diplomatic paths to resolve the crisis.”
The Hungarian Prime Minister also met the U.S. President-Elect earlier and claimed that he had proposed a “Christmas ceasefire and a large-scale prisoner exchange.” However, he further stated on Twitter/X, it was rejected by Ukrainian President Zelensky.
We proposed a Christmas ceasefire and a large-scale prisoner exchange. It’s sad that President Zelensky clearly rejected and ruled this out today. We did what we could.
At the end of the Hungarian EU Presidency, we made new efforts for peace. We proposed a Christmas ceasefire and a large-scale prisoner exchange. It’s sad that President @ZelenskyyUa clearly rejected and ruled this out today. We did what we could! https://t.co/17f4tXJEsc
— Orbán Viktor (@PM_ViktorOrban) December 11, 2024
Ukrainian officials have already dismissed such assertions. The Presidential aide, Dmytro Lytvyn, replied to such claims, stating:
As always, the Hungarian side did not discuss anything with Ukraine.
Later, in a Twitter/X post, Ukrainian President Zelensky also criticized the Hungarian Prime Minister, warning that any engagement with Russia would only further undermine European unity.
No one should boost (their) personal image at the expense of unity, everyone should focus on shared success. Unity in Europe has always been key to achieving it.
We all hope that @PM_ViktorOrban at least won’t call Assad in Moscow to listen to his hour-long lectures as well.
It’s absolutely clear that achieving real peace and guaranteed security requires America’s determination, Europe’s unity, and the unwavering commitment of all…
— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) December 11, 2024
Strategic Implications Of The Conflict
The latest developments between Russia and Ukraine suggest that tensions have already reached a new height, and it has only made the already complex geopolitical dynamic more complex. Although Ukraine has gained the ability to strike deep into the enemy territory, it has also escalated the risk of Russian retaliation.
