Not Rank & Status, but Optimisation, Change & Re-establishing Deterrence
For defence enthusiasts, the New Year began on a rather cheery note with the Ministry of Defence signalling that 2025 would be a year of deepening reforms. Why is the announcement so significant? What are the hopes and expectations? What should the direction of travel be? Here are a few thoughts.
The announcement of the CDS-DMA in January 2020, signalled the beginning of a wide ranging National Security Makeover, perhaps the most ambitious since independence. A greatly empowered CDS was tasked to drive change through the national security system. Aatmanirbharta in Defence (AID) similarly, was much more than the pursuit of self-reliance; it was about bringing a moribund military-industrial complex to life by cleansing it of the ills of a lazy, monopsony market – that of one buyer, monopoly sellers like HAL, no competition, limited choices and strangulating regulation. We also saw new normals in our strategic outlook (Balakot and Kailash) as also the tidings of defence coming out of the shadows of foreign policy.
The announcement hailing 2025 as the Year of Defence Reforms is a bold signalling of political intent: that the reforms will be broadened, deepened and accelerated to complete the national security makeover.
These reforms will have to be wide ranging and laser focused: they have to be about effecting change, infusing innovation & creativity, empowerment and operational delivery; not distractions around status and rank.
The initial signals seem to be good. At the recently held 21st Air Marshal Subroto Mukerjee Symposium in New Delhi, we saw extreme candour and the articulation of conjoint intent from the MoD hierarchy to disrupt the past and create a new strategic-military frame. The Defence Secretary went public with what was privately manifest – that the procurement procedures were indeed broken and needed to be fixed urgently. The Chief of Air Staff affirmed that while the Air Force was wedded to AID, the endless wait for indigenous platforms, the time and cost overruns, were denting our deterrence capacities. The Chairman DRDO called for a new way of doing things: international collaboration to develop sixth generation platforms and a substantial uptick in R&D spend.
The political leadership has set the tone and tenor for a bold national security makeover. The onus of executing the reforms now, is primarily be that of the apex leadership of the civil-military-technological-financial-administrative bureaucracies: through engagement, wisdom, collegiates (not committees) and consensus. Our CDS, the Service Chiefs, the Defence Secretary, Chairman DRDO and the Financial Advisor Defence Services (FADS) are men of infinite experience, maturity and sagacity. I am sanguine that they will demonstrate the collective statesmanship that the grim strategic environment demands of them, to deliver the transformation that the country sorely needs. In any case, this propensity of kicking curve balls to the PMO must end – the MoD leadership must lead & execute the change. Such change can have only two overarching objectives – national interest & combat delivery; that is what we owe to our sailors, soldiers and airmen in our fleets and formations – equipping them with the technologies and combat capacities that they need to win.
‘Vidya’, they say is more about clarity than knowledge. So, here are five metrics that we could prioritise and focus on.
First and foremost, the unfinished tasks of Joint manship must be taken to their logical conclusion – there must be no half-way houses. The Theatre Commands must be rolled out – with Commanders that are duly empowered in terms of rank and mandate. The Theatre Commanders must have a quasi-diplomatic visage with the tools to look beyond the immediate borders and shape events therein. We need to act with clarity in other areas too, space for instance – ISRO is for exploration, it cannot meet the very sophisticated needs of defence. The Space Agency must therefore be re-configured as an operational command and focus on LEO/ SAR capacities for persistent surveillance. The Cyber Agency must be upgraded similarly, to fortify multi-layered deterrence. CDS must sit on the promotion boards of potential three stars – with clear signalling – futures in the Indian military will be joint.
A top priority has to be the re-establishment of strategic-deterrence in four critical domains: stealth enabled offensive air power, a nation- wide AD topology, a drone-missile force and a maritime surge.
With regard to the Project of Aatmanirbharta in Defence we have made some very fine beginnings and breakthroughs. We must take our successes to the next level – our start – ups need only one kind of assistance – orders, orders and orders. A key persona in the reform will be the FADS who must lead the cultural makeover that will enable a transition from the travails of a monopsony market to the vistas & opportunities of a technology/innovation driven enterprise. The DPP will have to be unwritten and re-written. Traditional modes of price discovery (L-1) must be re-visited. Ways to incentivise risk taking and failing fast, must be grafted into procurement code,
An overriding priority has to be the embrace of AI and the emerging storm of technologies. The future is about military autonomy at declining costs – we are grossly underinvested in the domain. If we do not act fast, it may be too late. MoD must also lead the race for ascendancy in the domain of critical, emerging, technologies, since these technologies lie at the cusp of civil-military fusion. In the early 2000s the Americans led in 60 out of 65 technology sub-sets, the Chinese staged a dramatic inversion and now lead in 57 out of 65. Can India begin to lead in at least 10 chosen sub-sets by 2035?
Change is never easy – the inevitable tensions, disagreements and discord will have to be battled with patience, tenacity and resolve. While addressing the incoherence in our national security frame, we must guard against the pitfalls of national security overreach.
We are at an opportune, historic moment to calibrate our economic flight with the span of a sturdy strategic stride. Year 2025 could be for our National Security aspirations, what 1991 signified for our economic turnaround.
We cannot, must not, miss the boat.
