A detailed document outlining China’s activities has been presented to the US Congress.
Key takeaways from the 182-page report on China’s Military and Security Development include:
- China’s estimated defence budget for 2024 ranges between $330 billion and $450 billion.
- The rapid expansion and modernisation of China’s nuclear forces continue, aiming to provide Beijing with greater control over escalation dynamics in a potential war.
- China now possesses over 600 operational nuclear warheads, an increase from 500 last year. It is projected that China will have over 1,000 nuclear warheads by 2030 and will continue to expand its nuclear arsenal beyond that.
- The construction of three new missile fields, containing 320 silos for intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), has been completed. Additionally, China is developing new and more survivable ICBMs.
- China is building a global military presence and investing in capabilities to project power far beyond the First Island Chain. In 2023, the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) enhanced its ability to conduct missions beyond this region. In the near term, the PLAN will possess the capability to conduct long-range precision strikes against land targets from submarines and surface combatants using land-attack cruise missiles (LACMs), significantly boosting its power projection capabilities.
- China is seeking to expand its overseas logistics and basing infrastructure. The report highlights that China has likely considered other countries for PLA military logistics facilities, including but not limited to Burma, Indonesia, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, the United Arab Emirates, Cuba, Kenya, Equatorial Guinea, Seychelles, Tanzania, Angola, Nigeria, Namibia, Mozambique, Gabon, Bangladesh, Papua New Guinea, the Solomon Islands, and Tajikistan.
- The PLAN is numerically the largest navy in the world, with 370 ships and submarines. The US Department of Defense (DoD) projects this number will increase to 395 ships by 2025 and 435 by 2030. China is capable of producing a wide range of naval combatants, engines, and shipboard weapons and systems, making it nearly self-sufficient for all shipbuilding needs. It has sufficient capacity to produce submarines, surface combatants, auxiliary vessels, and amphibious ships in required numbers.
- China’s military modernisation remains heavily focused on Taiwan. The report underscores that China’s leadership views unification with Taiwan as a fundamental condition for national rejuvenation, to be achieved by 2049. To this end, the PLA is aggressively developing capabilities to deter, dissuade, or, if necessary, defeat third-party intervention in the Asia-Pacific region.
