A significant diplomatic breakthrough came earlier this Wednesday when Israel and Lebanon’s Hezbollah finally decided on a ceasefire agreement. This comes after 14 long and excruciating months of conflict, exacerbated by the ongoing war in Gaza. The ceasefire agreement has the potential to end the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah for the time being, which will greatly aid the stability and peace in the region.
The ceasefire agreement, ratified by Israel’s security Cabinet, came into effect at 4 a.m. local time on Wednesday. However, following the ceasefire agreement, hostilities have escalated as Israel launched airstrikes in Beirut and its suburbs, resulting in 24 casualties. This signals Israel’s intent to counter any threats with full force if the truce is violated.
Key Provisions and Challenges of The Ceasefire Agreement
The U.S.-backed ceasefire agreement was presented by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu late Tuesday night, at a cabinet meeting. It mandates a two-month period of cessation of hostilities, requiring Hezbollah to withdraw its armed presence from Southern Lebanon, while Israel military will also retreat to their side of the border. This will be done under the purview of a multinational panel, led by the U.S. to ensure compliance. Following the retreat from both parties, additional Lebanese troops and UN peacekeepers will be in charge of maintaining peace in the region.
But the ceasefire agreement still has room for uncertainties, as Israel reserves its right to resume military operations, following provocation from Hezbollah. This clause has met with harsh criticism from the Lebanese officials, although, Hezbollah has agreed in principle, pending a full review of the finalized terms, to endorse the ceasefire agreement wholeheartedly.
U.S. President Joe Biden has hailed the ceasefire as “good news” and promised to double down on de-escalating regional tension as his administration pushes for a ceasefire in Gaza.
Recent Escalation Followed By The Ceasefire
Although the ceasefire is optimistic, just a day before it came into effect, Israel engaged in unprecedented airstrikes across Beirut, leveling a residential complex in the Basta district, killing seven and injuring at least 37 civilians, as claimed by Lebanon’s Health Ministry. In another strike on the same day, targeting the southern suburbs of the city, the attack resulted in 1 casualty and 13 injuries. Similar strikes were carried out against several Palestinian refugee camps in the Hamra commercial district as well.
While Israel maintains these strikes serve to dismantle Hezbollah’s logistical and financial support, it certainly has fueled panic in the region, leading to mass exodus and traffic gridlocks.
Ongoing Military Operations on the Ground
Other than airstrikes, Israel is also engaging Hezbollah fighters near the Litani River. This is a critical strategic point for both Israel and Hezbollah. The ceasefire agreement will see Hezbollah relocating its ground forces at least 30 kilometers away from the Israeli border, just north of the river. It is likely to create a buffer zone, reducing direct ground confrontations.
Broader Geopolitical and Regional Implications
The Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire comes at a critical time. The region is already fraught with instability due to the ongoing conflict in Gaza. Although instrumental, the ceasefire won’t address the Gaza conflict, which was sparked by Hamas back in 2023. However, it will certainly reduce the likelihood of any direct confrontation between Israel and Iran, which is a key supporter of both Hamas and Hezbollah.
Moving Forward
Despite being signed and coming into effect, there is no guarantee that the ceasefire will remain effective for the two-month period as agreed on. The ceasefire was designed to be a “permanent cessation of hostilities” as remarked by President Biden, however, its success hinges on effective monitoring and mutual restraint, from both parties. The deployment of Lebanese troops and UN Peacekeepers might help, but as Prime Minister Netanyahu has commented, “If Hezbollah breaks the agreement and tries to rearm, we will attack, for every violation, we will attack with might.” To truly achieve peace in the region, the ceasefire has to be backed with sustained diplomatic engagement and restraint by both sides. However, it is still a step forward as it offers a glimmer of hope amidst all the volatility in the region.
