In today’s international arena, where geopolitical and geo-economic interests converge, state interactions are shifting from large balance of power alliances to strategic triangles. Strategic triangles, as defined by international relations theorists, are close, interdependent relationships among three countries. At any given time, these relationships can either involve shared strategic and economic perspectives among all three or see two states aligning against the third. These ties are transactional, and the trilateral relationships can be cooperative, competitive, or hierarchical.
In the Indo-Pacific, several strategic triangles can be identified, such as the US-Japan-South Korea, China-US-Japan, India-Russia-China, South Korea-Japan-North Korea, and Russia-China-North Korea triangles. Among these, the India-US-China triangle has become particularly significant. Factors contributing to this include the United States’ renewed focus on the Indo-Pacific under President Joe Biden, reversing the previous trend of withdrawal under the Trump administration. China has enhanced its power projection in the region through rapid modernization of the People’s Liberation Army and Navy. India, too, has increased its strategic presence due to expanded diplomatic and economic efforts. Strained US-China and India-China relations are crucial to these dynamics. The interplay of these three powers, sharing enduring economic and security interests, will significantly impact regional and international stability. The Biden-Xi dialogue suggests a potential easing of tensions between the two superpowers. The talks, focusing on global challenges like pandemics and climate change, indicate a mutual willingness to address transnational threats collaboratively. This could mark the beginning of reduced tensions and increased cooperation.
The meeting yielded significant diplomatic gains for China, aiming to alleviate bilateral tensions to prioritize economic growth and attract foreign investment. Biden hailed the agreement to resume military dialogues, halted by China following then-US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s 2022 trip to Taiwan, as a success. However, this is unlikely to alter China’s military behavior, including dangerous intercepts of US ships and aircraft. Establishing functional military relations between the US and China is acknowledged as a challenging and gradual process, requiring both parties to recognize the value of such engagements. However, Michael Kugelman (Director of the South Asia Institute at the Wilson Center in Washington) advises caution against overestimating these developments. “This breakthrough in US-China ties is significant given previous setbacks caused by tensions and mistrust. The Biden administration is genuinely committed to cooperating with China in feasible areas, as evidenced by Biden’s pre-presidency article highlighting potential cooperation in public health, climate change, and non-proliferation. Recent progress on these fronts underscores a US desire to make this work, and restoring military communication is a major confidence-building measure. However, given the fragile and fraught nature of the relationship, it wouldn’t take much for this momentum to collapse,” Kugelman said.
Current US-China Rivalry: In recent years, Washington has labeled China its “greatest strategic competitor” and adopted a more aggressive stance to counter Beijing’s growing influence. While US domestic audiences have largely supported this assertive policy, escalating tensions risk creating a security dilemma in South Asia. Amid this competition, Washington and Beijing must avoid exacerbating existing regional rivalries. Preventing an escalating arms race is a crucial first step. The United States and China both maintain long-standing strategic ties with their South Asian defense partners. Following the 1962 Sino-Indian War, China’s partnership with Pakistan has been central to its foreign policy, using it to counter India. China continues to invest heavily in Pakistan’s defense capabilities to neutralize Indian threats, posing the risk of a two-front war for India.
China-Pakistan defense ties underscore India’s significance in their relationship. In 2003, Beijing and Islamabad enhanced defense cooperation through a Joint Declaration. Since then, China has provided military assistance to Pakistan, including J-10CE jets, Al Khalid tanks, and VT-4 battle tanks. These transfers aim to rival Indian capabilities, such as Pakistan’s recent acquisition of J10C jets to counter Indian Rafales and J-F17 Thunder jets replacing reliance on US F-16s. Ongoing negotiations for a hypersonic missile to counter India’s S400 system further highlight this dynamic. China is also aiding Pakistan in developing its nuclear capabilities, projected to include over 200 nuclear missiles within five years. Pakistan showcased Chinese-acquired long-range nuclear missiles, advanced radar systems, and fighter jets at its 2022 Defense Day exhibition, shortly after India accidentally launched its Brahmos Missile into Pakistani territory. As China arms Pakistan to match India, it advances its South Asia strategy but risks accelerating a regional arms race.
US-China competition could exacerbate this situation. China worries about India acquiring nuclear-powered submarines under AUKUS and is apprehensive about the QUAD and its 2020 Malabar exercises. These developments raise Beijing’s threat perceptions, potentially leading it to further arm Pakistan. Chinese investments in Pakistan’s naval capabilities also raise Indian and US concerns about China’s role in the Indian Ocean. While the US and China do not explicitly mention their bilateral competition in regional strategies, its effects could spur increased militarization between India and Pakistan.
Contemporary US-China Relations: From 2018 to 2023, US-China relations experienced a downward spiral due to the trade war, the pandemic, technology competition, South China Sea and Taiwan Strait tensions, and differing approaches to the Russia-Ukraine conflict. This created a sense of inevitability that the countries were headed towards economic decoupling and potential military conflict. However, the summit between Presidents Joe Biden and Xi Jinping in November, ahead of the APEC Economic Leaders’ Week, marked the culmination of a year-long effort to calm tensions. The two sides announced deliverables on economic and security issues, attempting to manage their differences effectively. While the US and China continue to compete for power and global influence, creating guardrails has reduced the likelihood of the most disastrous outcomes. Although the chances of a genuine thaw resolving fundamental differences remain low, there are underappreciated sources of stability that could prevent further deterioration of relations. Nevertheless, active diplomacy and some good fortune will be necessary to maintain this stability in 2024.
During their four-hour meeting at the Filoli Estate in Woodside, California, Presidents Biden and Xi adhered to their established positions on key issues such as technology, economic security, Taiwan, Ukraine, and human rights. However, they managed to achieve outcomes that surpassed most analysts’ expectations. According to reports from the White House and Chinese media outlets like Xinhua and Caixin, several agreements emerged from the meeting:
- Resumption of military dialogue: Military-to-military communications will resume through various channels and on specific topics.
- Renewable energy efforts: Both sides committed to speeding up initiatives to expand renewable energy and reduce carbon emissions, in line with the joint statement issued at Sunnylands.
- Drug trafficking cooperation: Efforts to combat fentanyl and other narcotics will be restored and expanded.
- Artificial intelligence discussions: There will be increased discussions aimed at managing risks associated with artificial intelligence.
- Travel and exchanges: The two countries will push for more direct flights and enhance people-to-people exchanges.
- Science and technology cooperation: Consultations will begin to renew the U.S.-China Science and Technology Cooperation Agreement, which is due to expire in late February 2024.
Additionally, the tone of the relationship was adjusted. The Biden administration’s readout now describes the relationship as one of “competition,” dropping the previously used term “strategic.” In contrast, Chinese media have highlighted the friendly and respectful nature of the meeting, presenting an optimistic outlook for future relations. Chinese Ambassador Xie Feng’s speech at the U.S.-China Business Council’s annual gala in December exemplified this shift in tone.
The United States and China entered the meeting with different circumstances. President Biden arrived with strong economic momentum. The U.S. economy had rebounded, growth was strong, and inflation had slowed. Despite internal Congressional disputes, significant legislation such as the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act and the CHIPS and Science Act were passed, laying a solid foundation for future economic stability. U.S. relations with allies in Asia and Europe had improved, with a unified approach to China emerging among advanced democracies. This alignment was driven by shared concerns about China’s industrial policies, human rights issues, and geopolitical manoeuvres, including its relationship with Russia and the situation in the South China Sea.
In contrast, President Xi arrived amid significant domestic and international challenges. China’s zero-Covid policies, initially successful, faltered in 2022, leading to widespread public discontent. The economy faced numerous issues, including a crackdown on the tech sector, a shrinking workforce, and growing restrictions on Western markets and technology. Internationally, tensions with the U.S. and its allies, alongside criticism of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), had further strained China’s global position. Xi’s efforts to stabilize relations with the U.S. were driven by the need to rebuild domestic confidence and manage international challenges. Despite Washington’s firm stance on several issues, Xi attended the APEC summit and the bilateral meeting, indicating a desire for improved relations. China has not yet imposed significant retaliatory measures, possibly to avoid exacerbating the already strained relationship.
Three key factors contribute to the current stability in U.S.-China relations:
- Military Deterrents: Both countries maintain credible military deterrents. China’s rising power and its threats related to Taiwan are matched by the U.S. commitment to defend Taiwan and its allies. The high costs of conflict have created a broad consensus favoring the status quo.
- Economic Interdependence: Despite stagnation in trade and investment ties, the extensive economic and societal interdependence between the U.S. and China raises the costs of conflict and underscores the benefits of continued interaction. This interdependence is further reinforced by global connections.
- People-to-People Exchanges: The resumption of regular interactions, including track 2 dialogues and official consultations, helps reduce misunderstandings and fosters stability. Regular communication channels, including congressional delegations, provide pathways to mitigate potential conflicts.
Impact on Global Politics
The U.S. strategy of “responsible competition” with China, focusing on strengthening alliances and upholding a rules-based order, is shaping Indo-Pacific geopolitics. India’s role in this strategy is crucial as the U.S. navigates its rivalry with China. A strong partnership with India is key to ensuring stability in the Indo-Pacific. The evolving geopolitical landscape highlights the need for strategic patience, diplomacy, and multilateralism to address regional challenges and opportunities. The intensifying geopolitical competition is creating clear alignments: the U.S.-India partnership versus the China-Pakistan alliance. As U.S.-India ties deepen, China’s growing relationship with Pakistan could exacerbate regional tensions. The ongoing competition between the U.S. and China might inadvertently fuel existing rivalries between India and Pakistan, potentially leading to increased militarization in South Asia.
India’s Current Status and China-India Rivalry
South Asia’s strategic significance, serving as a gateway to Central Asia, has attracted the interest of major powers like China and the U.S. India, with its substantial GDP and military expenditure, is a key player in this contest. India views China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) with skepticism, seeing it as a flawed project that threatens regional stability. India’s approach to its rivalry with China involves a mix of restricted hard balancing, soft balancing, and diplomatic maneuvering. This strategy reflects the power differential between the two nations and focuses on modest military enhancements and informal alliances. India’s geographical challenges and its varied regional neighbors complicate its diplomatic efforts. Former Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s remark about alternating friends but unchanging neighbors underscores the difficulty of establishing lasting relationships. India’s future success as a regional power depends on securing its environment and balancing its domestic and foreign policy goals. While the China-India rivalry remains challenging, the strategic landscape of South Asia is influenced by broader global dynamics. India’s ability to navigate this environment, alongside its partnerships with major powers, will shape its role in regional and global politics.
The Indo-Pakistan War of 1965 marked a turning point in India’s foreign policy, shifting its focus toward prioritizing national security. According to S. D. Muni, India’s diplomatic strategy is shaped by its diplomatic approach and personality. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has actively pursued a dynamic regional diplomacy, engaging with neighboring countries to build stronger political connections through dialogue. Modi’s approach is rooted in the idea that foreign policy starts at a nation’s borders. His first major gesture in this direction was inviting all South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) heads of state to his inauguration, signaling a commitment to improving regional relationships. Modi’s foreign policy efforts are aimed at reversing the decline in India’s regional influence. His visits to Bangladesh, Bhutan, and Nepal were not merely ceremonial but focused on forging durable relationships. For instance, Modi’s inaugural trip abroad was to Bhutan, which he highlighted as having a “unique and special bond,” and his government’s goal was to strengthen this relationship. During visits to Bhutan and Nepal, Modi promoted trans-Himalayan regionalism, emphasizing its significance in Asian politics, culture, and security. He worked to address issues and clarify India’s strategy, bridging previous gaps in communication and trust.
Modi’s visit to Bangladesh, with West Bengal’s Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee, resulted in the resolution of the longstanding boundary dispute through the Land Boundary Agreement. This agreement led to a USD 2 billion credit line to Bangladesh and improved bilateral relations. Additionally, India and Bangladesh negotiated a deal for Bangladesh to receive 100 MW of energy daily from the ONGC Tripura Power Company, and Bangladesh agreed to allow access to the Chittagong port and proposed a rail connection between Agartala and Akhaura, reducing travel distance significantly. Modi also made a historic visit to Sri Lanka, the first by an Indian prime minister since Rajiv Gandhi, focusing on the countries’ historical and cultural ties and seeking to renew their relationship. In December 2015, Modi reassured Afghanistan of India’s support, emphasizing India’s role in contributing positively rather than competing or creating discord. An April 2016 defense collaboration agreement with the Maldives highlighted India’s commitment to regional stability and democratic development.
Modi’s neighborhood-first diplomacy aims to counter China’s “string of pearls” strategy, which seeks to limit India’s influence by establishing Chinese bases around its periphery. Modi’s approach contrasts with the West, especially the US, which has been India’s preferred partner since the 1990s, following India’s economic liberalization. This partnership has brought significant investments and military technology, with US companies investing over USD 65 billion in India between 2000 and 2024. However, China’s aggressive actions, such as claiming Arunachal Pradesh and incidents like the Galwan clash, have strained relations. The strategic significance of the Indian Ocean, with major choke points like the Malacca Straits and the Suez Canal, has intensified the geopolitical rivalry between the US and China. China’s investments and military bases in the Indian Ocean region have heightened India’s concerns about encirclement.
India’s trade with China has grown, with significant imports from China, though investment from China has faced restrictions and suspicion from India. The relationship has deteriorated since incidents like the Galwan clash, and recent diplomatic exchanges reflect growing tensions. India faces the challenge of balancing its relationships with the West and China. As global power dynamics shift, India must navigate its role amidst competing global powers. The creation of AUKUS, a defense pact involving the US, UK, and Australia, highlights the complexities of managing alliances and rivalries. India’s policymakers need to carefully balance these relationships, learning from historical examples like Turkey’s neutral stance during World War II, as they strategize for the future. The upcoming meeting between US President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping could further impact India’s strategic position and its ongoing border issues with China.
India’s Strategic Position
India finds itself navigating a complex geopolitical landscape amidst recent global shifts. The nation continues to experience ongoing border tensions with China, most notably highlighted by the Galwan Valley clash in 2020. As US-China relations evolve, they could impact India’s strategy towards its northern neighbor. India’s approach to the US-China dynamic is nuanced. Recent alignments in Asia and the Indo-Pacific have prompted India and the US to enhance their relationship, particularly in response to China’s growing assertiveness in the region. The US has prioritized the Indo-Pacific, challenging China’s regional dominance and forming a coalition to counterbalance China’s influence. Yet, the US’s shift from a confrontational stance to a more nuanced approach of “de-risking” economic engagement with China—while resuming high-level talks for confidence-building—reflects a sophisticated strategy. This approach is driven by significant economic ties, with bilateral trade reaching nearly $700 billion in 2022.
C Raja Mohan, Senior Fellow at the Asia Policy Society Institute, outlined India’s strategic challenges. “India must continuously evaluate changes in great power dynamics, particularly among the US, China, and Russia. It should focus on strengthening its ties with the US, maintaining its historical relationship with Russia, and managing its complex relationship with China. India’s rise in the global system enables it to adapt to sudden shifts in great power relations,” he told India Today. Michael Kugelman, Director of the South Asia Institute at the Wilson Center, noted the global desire for improved US-China relations and how India aligns with this sentiment. “The world would benefit from less tension between the US and China, and India is likely no exception. Given the transnational threats we face, such as pandemics and climate change, it’s crucial for the two most powerful nations to collaborate on these global challenges,” he explained to India Today.
Kugelman offered insight into how improved US-China relations might affect India. “A thaw in US-China relations, including renewed military cooperation, could benefit India directly. One reason for China’s recent provocations against India could be the burgeoning US-India security partnership,” said Kugelman. “If US-China tensions ease, Beijing might have less incentive to confront India. However, these impacts should not be overstated; the deep-rooted issues between India and China are not solely dependent on US-China relations. Still, reduced tensions between the US and China could help mitigate some of the security threats China poses to India,” he added. As these developments unfold, the key question remains: Will there be a tangible shift in the India-China border situation? While US-China military talks offer some hope, the entrenched issues and mutual distrust between India and China are unlikely to be resolved quickly. For India, this is a moment to recalibrate its diplomatic and strategic stance, seizing new opportunities while protecting its national interests. India’s agility and foresight will be crucial in shaping its role on the global stage amidst these evolving dynamics.
The Indo-Pacific Region
The Indo-Pacific region has become a central point of strategic competition, particularly between the US and China. The US has adopted a “responsible competition” strategy to manage its rivalry with China while promoting regional stability and prosperity. This strategy has significant implications for India, which plays a key role in US strategic plans. Looking ahead to 2024, the “competition without conflict” paradigm suggests that while engagement may not return to previous levels, efforts to reduce risks such as decoupling and military conflict should continue. Both countries must act prudently to prevent escalation, especially in sensitive areas like the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea. The Taiwan election results will require careful handling to avoid increased tensions. New dialogue channels are essential for the US and China to address issues in trade, technology, artificial intelligence, climate change, and security. While initial discussions are valuable, these should evolve into negotiations that produce substantive outcomes.
The Biden administration should also enhance coordination with European and Asian allies on China policy. Concrete alignment on economic security, digital economy regulations, climate commitments, and WTO reforms will be crucial. Furthermore, the administration needs to refine its China policy by setting clear goals and evaluating effectiveness in areas such as technology innovation and reducing dependence on China. In short, 2024 will require the Biden administration to institutionalize its China policy, making measurable progress and minimizing volatility. This will help address criticisms from Beijing, other countries, and domestic perspectives, particularly as China policy becomes a central topic in upcoming US elections.
Historical Dynamics
In the early 2000s, the India-China-US triangle was marked by a mix of converging geopolitical and economic interests, though underlying differences persisted. The end of the Cold War and the Soviet Union’s collapse diminished the Sino-US security rationale. The Bush administration shifted from viewing China as a strategic partner to a competitor. The 9/11 attacks altered US strategies, prompting efforts to cultivate cooperation with China for the Global War on Terrorism and the Iraq War. While China did not publicly support the US military actions, it saw an opportunity to improve relations with Washington, resulting in strategic concessions on Taiwan and the South China Sea.
India, following the Soviet Union’s disintegration, sought closer ties with the US, driven by shared concerns over terrorism and China’s rise. Despite a setback in bilateral relations due to India’s nuclear tests, New Delhi sought to improve ties with Beijing, primarily for commercial reasons. China, despite opposition to India’s nuclear tests, recalibrated towards cooperation due to growing military and economic ties with the US. The trend of cooperation and competition among India, the US, and China continued into the late 2010s. India and China, despite border disputes and geopolitical competition, collaborated on multilateral platforms like BRICS, SCO, and AIIB to address issues affecting the Global South. Concurrently, the US and China managed economic cooperation despite frictions over trade and security issues. India and the US strengthened their defense ties, including agreements like LEMOA and COMCASA, and engaged in joint military exercises. The US’s presence in the Indo-Pacific was welcomed by India as a counterbalance to Chinese dominance. The US encouraged India to play a larger role in the region, while India and the US maintained cooperative ties despite mutual concerns about China.
Contemporary Trends and Future Scenario
The current India-US-China strategic triangle has shifted significantly. The India-China relationship deteriorated after the 2020 Galwan Valley clash, and bilateral ties have remained tense. Similarly, US-China relations became more confrontational under the Biden administration, marked by trade wars, sanctions, and heightened competition over advanced technologies. India and the US have increasingly aligned against China, with both countries seeking to counter Chinese influence in the Indo-Pacific through frameworks like the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) and agreements on defense and technology. China, in response, has expanded its diplomatic outreach and partnerships with other countries. Three potential scenarios for the India-US-China triad are possible. First, the three states might find a way to collaborate on global challenges such as climate change and resource scarcity, leading to pragmatic cooperation. This scenario would involve limited agreements and joint ventures, fostering a period of cold coexistence driven by necessity.
