“There is some self-interest behind every friendship. There is no friendship without self-interests. This is a bitter truth.” -Chanakya
The Genesis- China Pakistan Economic Corridor and the World
Right from time immemorial, the Indian subcontinent has been home to a number of civilisations, such as the Great Indus Valley Civilisation and the Far Eastern kingdoms, having contributed profusely to the betterment of the world- whether in economics, mathematics, data calculation and analytics, culture, traditions, religion, faith and belief systems, merchant shipping, maritime trade, civilizational heritage, et al. One such contribution or development was that of the Silk route. The Silk Trade Route was a renowned trade-cum-investment merchant route which connected Far Eastern countries (the then kingdoms) to their Eurasian counterparts. Based largely on this, is the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)- a civilizational revival strategical technique of the Chinese, furthering in glorifying the ancient past of the ‘Land of the Dragon.’ The proposal, as floated back in 2013- is an exact modern duplicate of the ancient route. China floated this idea to all its Asian counterparts and its maritime partners, going as far as the East African underdeveloped countries, including India as well, which outrightly rejected this seemingly bonafide idea. The same was done because of the looming threats being posed or projected to-be futuristically posed in terms of territorial sovereignty and crisscrossing of the Gilgit Baltistan and the larger Pakistan occupied Kashmir region (which, India rightfully, claims, hers). Indian territorial sovereignty, national security, nationalistic integrity, defense and strategic affairs, and the external diplomatic affairs would have fallen into jeopardy and highly imperiled, had India accepted this discerningly gloomy-gory proposal.
Before delving into the nuances of the project, it is pertinent to know a bit about the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. A 3000-kilometre long Chinese infrastructural ‘nee’ strategically significant project network, the economic corridor was depicted as a modern-world marvel, encompassing the sea and land networks, intrinsically zig-zagging via various national borders. It was basically founded upon the notion of securing and lessening China’s mainland distance from mineral-rich and strategically indispensable areas (countries). The main aim was to avoid the existing path through the Strait of Malacca between Malaysia and Indonesia, while also linking the route to the energy imports from the Middle East. Today, the Gwadar deep sea port holds extravagant significance and quintessentiality. Enhancing trade between Europe and China, the deep-sea port at Gwadar in the Arabian Sea (on the Pakistani side) is meant for furthering a robust road and rail network from the port itself to the Xinjiang region in western China. China, has already, very strategically projected this project as a way of addressing economic woes of Pakistan, such as erratic electricity, failing modernization techniques, transportation woes and lack of service sector opportunities. Gwadar port, a deep-sea port situated in the Baluchistan province of Pakistan is under the administrative control of the Maritime Secretary of Pakistan, as well as the operational control of the Chinese Overseas Post Holding Company- clearly reeking of the principled practice of debt diplomacy, and carrot-cum-stick policy of China, since the mission statement for CPEC is (boldly and openly)- “Securing energy Import and Trade Boost for China, Infrastructure Development of Pakistan.” Needless to say, that this is a policy clearly furthering the Chinese interests. It is an unsaid truth that securing energy, import opportunities, and trade boost for China is the very first objective of the mission and of course, the interest of any other country, come after that only. Singularly, it is a China centric policy with other nations playing their part, as guest appearances. Pakistan, by that means, is a mere puppet in the hands of the Chinese. The same can be garnered from the fact that the Gwadar International Airport in Baluchistan had no passengers, no planes and required footfall for a normal airport, as reported by the AP News, the South China Morning Post, and the Times of India. It is quite a spectacle when China has funneled $240 million, over the years, for the same. Well, here again, an old saying of the international law holds true- “there are no permanent friends, or permanent enemies, in international relations; there are but, only permanent interests” (Lord Palmerston, British Prime Minister, 19th century).
The CPEC, Pakistan and the New Normal
China has poured money mostly in the Baluchistan province of Pakistan, a largely tribal inhabited area, with strong allegiance to the ancient laws of societal regulation. Gwadar was meant to be a pet project of the Chinese, and that one part of the cogwheel has already tanked, shows that the whole project can disperse, anytime soon. And, consecutively the problems and issues created by the Chinese workers diligently working alongside the Pakistani nationals in Baluchistan are going to get extremely compounded. Recurrent news items of frequent attacks that the Chinese are subjected to by the natives, on account of land grabbing, job encroachment, lack of employment opportunities, and others, have been keenly noticed by the international community as well. The very idea of avoiding Malacca Strait, a US-controlled strategically important sea trade route and accessing the Arabian Sea via Kashgari and Gwadar, was a masterstroke by China. Malacca Strait is an indispensable and important sea route with humungous amounts of shipping and merchant trade passing through the same. It passes through the Pacific Ocean, South China Sea, the Indian Ocean, the Bay of Bengal, and then reaches the Arabian Sea, while bordering a number of island nations. The aforementioned arguments show case the significance of the strait and also highlight as to why China is needing an escape from Malacca to the seas of the mighty Arabian, and control a whole lot of the world shipping networks and modules. It is again significant and desirable to see the Indian side of things.
India Amidst the Turmoil
China is used to following a number of policies in its international diplomatic engagements. The China Pakistan Economic Corridor is said to be in furtherance of the same. Firstly, the CPEC must be seen in the larger picture of Chinese String of Pearls, a doctrine coined by the US researchers, referring to an intricately juxtaposed network of Chinese military and commercial facilities, along with relationships, affixing with its sea lines of communication. These extend from the mainland China to the Port of Sudan in the Horn of Africa, while running through several major maritime points such as the Strait of Malacca, Strait of Mandab, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Lombok Strait, while crisscrossing Somalia, and littoral South Asian countries of Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, and the Maldives. This plan, according to the Indian defense experts and diplomatic strategists, can and would easily encircle the Indian mainland, alongwith the islands, as well. India’s maritime security, national security, power projection strategies, maritime and shipping trade, and territorial integrity is highly jeopardized in this scenario. It is indeed a well-thought-out decision to stay put and outside the sphere of this Economic Corridor.
Secondly, the near-closeness and proximity of the Chinese with the Pakistanis on the issue of Gwadar and other construction projects compounds the genuine Indian fears of China supposingly building a cross-border naval military base, furthering enabling it to conduct expeditionary warfare in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR). Acquisition of Hambantota Sea port in Sri Lanka, building the deep-water sea port Kyaukpyu in the Far East, easy acquisition of the overseas naval port Djibouti in August 2017, are enough to demonstrate that China is indeed, trying to circle in Indian interests through, sea, land, and air, comprehensively. The exigency and predictions of a futuristic warfare conducted from these bases cannot be overruled or ignored, by Indian strategists. This is again, one of the basic reasons why India has decided to remain outside the sphere of the economic corridor. It must be noted that, all this is being done by China, by efficient use of its deep pocketed resources and policies of string of pearls, diplomatic maneuvering, carrot and stick policy, as well as debt trap diplomacy.
Conclusively, India is abound with challenges from the Chinese and Pakistani sides, for sure. But India being a diplomatically sound and strategically quintessential defense partner for many of the international players, along with being a hugely popular leader of Global South, is not sidelined in the game. India is actively building up her own interests in the naval paradigm of defense affairs. The strengthening of the Lakshadweep and the Andaman Islands by the Indian forces, while also updating the capacity building strategic programmes on the same, the Chabahar port deal with Iran, and heavy investments in bolstering the Coast Guard Forces of India, the emerging strong relationships with island nations such as Maldives, Mauritius, Seychelles, Madagascar, Sri Lanka, despite turmoils and setbacks-shows the resilience of the Indian side to get back, up stronger and strengthened. India, can also play a part in successful diplomatic back-channel talks with Pakistani counterparts, for better bilateral relations, which will concurrently put the Chinese influence at abeyance. However, that does depend upon the control of terror regimes within Pakistan by the Pakistani side. An unstable Afghanistan and a deeply shocked Pakistan is not good for Indian interests. But, in the present situation, India is playing with her best deck of cards. The future can hold, many miracles. Jia Hind
