You, I and the world are helplessly watching the war raging between Israel and Iran with a sense of growing unease. The non-contact war that hit the region on 13 June 2025 with Israel launching Operation Rising Lion and Iran responding with Operation Promise III. The escalating conflict between Israel and Iran has captured global attention, instilling a pervasive sense of dread. The conflict is intensifying, and observers are left wondering about the broader implications of two arch rivals wanting to eliminate each other. Analysts are concerned that this could potentially spiral into a larger conflict, raising fears about the possibility of World War III. The stakes are high, and the international community is left grappling with the uncertainty of what may lie ahead. The situation is alarming; the larger question haunting geopolitical analysts and citizens alike is: Could this be the beginning of World War III?
On June 13, 2025, a dramatic escalation shocked the world when Israel launched “Operation Rising Lion”, striking more than 100 military and nuclear targets across Iran. The attack killed at least four senior IRGC commanders. Maj. Gen. Hossein Salami, Maj. Gen. Mohammad Bagheri, Maj. Gen. Gholam Ali Rashid, and Brig. Gen. Amir Ali Hajizadeh and nuclear scientists including Fereydoon Abbasi-Davani, Mohammad Mehdi Tehranchi, Seyed Amir Hossein Feqhi, and Mansour Asgari, a former head of Iran’s SPND nuclear research program.
Key nuclear sites sustained significant damage: Natanz’s Pilot Fuel Enrichment Plant (PFEP) that houses advanced IR4 and IR6 centrifuges; the Esfahan Nuclear Technology Centre and the Arak Heavy Water Reactor; and the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, though underground, was struck.
Israel also targeted Iran’s missile infrastructure: across Kermanshah, Tabriz, Esfahan, Tehran, dozens of Shahab, Dezful, and Sejjil missile launchers, three missile depots, radar and air-defence sites (e.g. Hazrate Masoumeh, Sobashi), as well as IRGC bases in Piranshahr and Sardasht, were destroyed.
Israel attacked energy assets, at the Shahran and Shahr-Rey oil depots near Tehran and two units of the South Pars gas field which are the Iran’s largest natural gas facilities. Iran responded with waves of missiles and drones. On June 15–16, major strikes hit Tel Aviv, Haifa, Bat Yam, Rishon LeZion, Ramat Gan, Tamra, and Kirya (IDF headquarters). Among the damaged Israeli infrastructure were the Weizmann Institute of Science, the Bazan oil refinery in Haifa, and residential buildings killing dozens.
The geopolitical situation is dynamic, and the way both Israel and Iran are hitting each other’s vital locations, it may well turn into a world war. Is the situation ripe, and relations strained to the point that a world war may begin? The issue is debatable. The situation must be controlled by all stakeholders and the rest of the world must come together to prevent any further deterioration. The US has been supporting Israel militarily and politically, and yet the statements by President Trump are contradictory. He said he would not be involved in the war till the US national interest was threatened. Marco Rubio, the US Secretary of State, also made a similar statement. But the support on the ground points towards active involvement of the US in military air war with Iran. No one in Iran and rest of the world had expected a different the Israeli strikes and it was precise and accurate. Iran was surprise it took some time for it to recover from the shock and took the entire day of 13 June 2025 to assess the losses, appoint new commanders who could take charge and retaliate. The US has also been opposing Iran on account of developing nuclear weapons. That is yet another reason why the US is supporting Israel to hit the nuclear sites.
Let me discuss some of the factors that may exacerbate the current situation:
1. The rivals and alliances. Escalation of the situation from conflict between Israel and Hamas to the regional level where the entire Middle East has got sucked into the war. The rivals and alliances are being formed.
2. The Nuclear Threat. Attempts by the US to destroy the nuclear facilities of Iran on account of Iran building its capability to make up to nine nuclear weapons.
3. Grim Diplomacy. The diplomatic efforts of UN, UN Nuclear Agency and other stakeholders seems to be falling apart. Russia and China has still not voiced their strength and war seems to be prolonging possibly till Iran capitulates. Prevent Russia and China to stay away from the conflict and stop war in Ukraine.
4. The Naval Game. Deployment of large number of US naval assets bring silent but strong message to the world to be prepared for the world war.
5. Economic Blunder through Disruption/Destruction of Oil and Gas Installations. It is waiting to take place in case steps are not initiated to prevent further escalation of war.
6. The Wars by Proxies. Badly bruised but waiting for an opportunity, these proxies of Iran have the potential to escalate the conflict. The war that started with the killing of Israeli citizens and the abduction of 250 of them on 07 October 2023, has escalated into a regional war.
Iran was aiding and supporting its Proxies in Palestine, Lebanon and Yaman. Isreal at that time was fighting and destroying leaders and centres of these terrorists. In 2024 there have been two occasions when Israel had warned Iran and even fired drones and missiles to send message to Iran to stop abetting the terrorists. Somehow, Iran did not accept and continued with its strategies. It has taken Israel to penetrate Mossad into Iran, prepare itself and launched full-fledged war against Iran.
The direct confrontation between the two has engulfed the entire region and the Middle East at the cusp of inviting world war. History has shown that regional disputes, where the national interests of numerous countries are at risk and a minor conflict escalates to a regional level, have the potential to escalate into a world war. The world has been divided into two blocks: one with Israel being supported by the US, UK and NATO countries and the other with Iran being supported by Russia, China and the Muslim world. “Either side will not cross the red lines for a world war to start,” is a fair assumption to convince oneself that world war does not begin. I argue that the common sense will prevail and the world war will be avoided. I am examining certain factors that to see if that is feasible.
Let’s examine five critical factors that could decide the future of this conflict, Will it escalate from a regional crisis into a global catastrophe or will be prevented?
1. The rivals and alliances World War III. The most dangerous scenario is the direct conflict between the multiple powers, specifically the USA on one side and Russia and China as opponents. The United States is a strong ally of Israel, while Iran shares deep strategic ties with Russia and China. If any of these countries are drawn directly into the battlefield, even in limited engagements, it could set the stage for an uncontrollable World War, especially if NATO or SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organization) members are dragged in.
I draw a corollary of the present situation with that of WW2. Initially rival countries got together to teach other a lesson. There were no formal global military blocs like NATO or the Warsaw Pact. The world was divided among rivalries, alliances, and aggressive empires. The Axis Powers included Germany, Italy, and Japan. They formed a loose alliance driven by expansionism, militarism, and totalitarian ideologies. Similarly, The Allied Powers comprised Britain and France. Later the Soviet Union and the United States joined to fight the Axis. The alliances were formed during the war.
World War II (1939–1945) led to formation of NATO and the Warsaw Pact after the WWII based on three important causes:
- Treaty of Versailles resentment (especially in Germany)
- Expansionist ambitions (Nazi Germany, Fascist Italy, Imperial Japan)
- Appeasement policies and weak collective security efforts
- The Nazi–Soviet Pact (Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact) of 1939
Let us look back at the present scenario. I understand that the same template cannot be replicated in present context as the time, technology, warring countries are all different. However, what remains common is that the war is being fought based on similar factors like; world getting divided into rivals and alliances being forged and expansionists policies. The historical trend lines do show an increasing possibility WWII.
2. Nuclear Overhang
Israel has not claimed but it is an open secret that it most likely possesses nuclear bombs. Israel is highly proactively and if any of its traditional red lines are crossed, Netanyahu, The Israel PM, may resort to use of the nuclear weapons. The red lines could be; incapacitation of Iron Dome and Arrow Defences, sever damage to Israeli nuclear installations at Dimona and if economic hubs are crippled by Iranian attacks. Similarly, if the Iranian redlines are crossed, it may strike Israel with nuclear bombs with the support of one of its allies. In case Iran is at the brink of losing the war and fear of destruction takes over it may urge its alliance partners to strike Israel with nuclear weapon. It may also seek “nuclear breakout” to deter Israeli or the US intervention. Some its rogue terrorist organisations may be incited by Iran to use the nukes.
Recent attacks by Israel have destroyed six major nuclear sites, including three major ones, Natanz, Fordow and Isfahan in Iran. Iranian allies are equally poised to threaten Israel and the USA with nuclear arsenals, and any miscalculation may lead to a repeat of Hiroshima and Nagasaki shortly. That would be a disaster that no country in the world would want. I appreciate that if timely intervention by the US, Russia and China is not initiated, the warring rival alliance partners may use nuclear weapons in anger and frustration to destroy Israel. Neither side has declared, but it is known to possess the capability to create and use them. Alternatively, their allies may help them with the weapons. Recent threat by General Mohsen Rezaei, a senior IRGC officer claimed on Iranian TV that Pakistan would nuke Israel if Israel launched any nuclear bomb on Iran. has further aggravated the dynamics. This too has different connotation. Pakistan is not a declared nuclear state and use of atom bomb by Pakistan to support Israel would warrant UN, IAEA and other world bodies to initiate actions against Pakistan to prevent use of atom bomb.
I appreciate that the likelihood of a nuclear weapon being used is low but not negligible, and could be used if the diplomatic backchannels fail and superpower deterrence (US, Russia, China) collapses.
3. Grim Diplomacy
António Costa, the president of the European Council, on 15 June 2025, said, “Now is the time to give space for diplomacy and to give opportunity to decrease the escalation between Israel and Iran.” How much will the world be able to play positive diplomatic cards to control escalation of the war is far fetched aim. The United Nations and IAEA have failed to bring peace and security in the Middle East in the prevailing conflict. The war started with the killings and abduction of Israeli citizens on 07 October 2023, and they have not returned the remaining 34 hostages to date. It has escalated the war to the brink of the use of nuclear weapons, and I feel it has already become a World War with an apparent emergence of two warring sides. France has supplied weapons and deployed missiles if needed. So, Germany has supported Israel at G7 Summit in Canada and as stated by German Chancellor Friedrich Merz on 15 June 2025. is contesting for space and power, and in the bargain, both sides have invited death and destruction. Both Israel and Iran have publicly stated that more destruction is on the way. Diplomacy seems to have taken a back seat. The US, on the one hand, claims no connection with the war, and support to Israel is openly providing weapons and equipment. The UN and EU are struggling to mediate, with no success in sight, and the danger of diplomatic backchannels may soon close. That may leave military solutions as the only perceived option. History teaches us when dialogue dies, wars begin.
4. The Naval Game.
The air, drones and the missile war is hitting the region hard with both sides pounding each other. Iran has suffered very heavy damage. Mobilisation of the Navies of the US, UK and NATO has added fuel to the fire. The US has moved the destroyer Thomas Hudner from Western Mediterranean to Eastern Mediterranean Sea. USS Carl Vinson is already deployed in Arabian Sea. The nuclear powered aircraft carrier USS Nimitz was deployed in the Indo-Pacific in South China Sea and has been ordered to move to Arabian Sea. Similarly another carrier USS George Washington that was deployed off the Japan coast is ready to move to either South China sea or Arabian Sea. The Baltic Sea The focus of the US can be well assessed as this Battle carrier was deployed in South China Sea to manage Chinese influence in the far east Asian region. Moving it into Arabian Sea will change the entire game in the war against Iran. And then the US says, it still has not joined the war. The nature of deployment and the actions by Israel on ground leaves little to imagine. Death and destruction are all around. Unfolding events in the Middle East post a serious dilemma that may have most dangerous outcome in 21st century.
The mobilsation of US naval fleets in the Arabian Sea, East Mediterranean Sea and the Baltic Sea are clear signals of preparation by the US and NATO to thwart Iranian actions in the Arabian Sea.
5. Economic Blunder through Disruption/Destruction of Oil and Gas Installations.
Iran could target the Strait of Hormuz, through which nearly 20% of the world’s oil supply flows. India faces a severe risk of losing trade, as approximately 50% of its petroleum and 70% of its gas flow through this area. India, China and European countries import majority of oil and natural gas from Iran. A blockade or military action in this area would cause oil prices to skyrocket, spark economic recessions, and increase social unrest. Oil and crude prices have already up by about 10 per cent and the prices could rise to US$130 per barrel. The threat of trade looms large, which can trigger more sanctions, cyberattacks, or trade disruptions, potentially escalating into military engagements among rival blocs. The impact of the war has been direct and immediate on the oil-producing countries in the region, and some of them have condemned the war and offensive by Israel. Saudi Arabia has condemned Israel’s actions and has called for a ceasefire at the earliest. Qatar, the UAE, and Oman have also called for immediate talks and peace in the region at the earliest. The economies of the region are already being affected adversely and any further escalation is likely to have severe impact.
The world has been through initial shockwaves caused by the destruction of key oil and gas facilities in Iran and retaliatory strikes on Israeli energy assets, the global oil market have reacted negatively but they are stable and adequately supplied. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), oil production from non-OPEC+ countries is expected to grow by around 1.3 million barrels per day in 2025, comfortably exceeding the estimated global demand rise of about 700,000 barrels per day. This surplus provides a cushion, at least in the short term, against regional supply disruptions. OECD countries currently hold over 2.7 billion barrels of oil in commercial storage. More than 1.2 billion barrels out of 2.7 billion barrels of commercial storage, are designated as emergency stocks by the IEA. Private oil companies, are required to maintain a stockpile of 580 million barrels. These reserves offer strategic depth if the conflict escalates further and begins to impact broader supply routes. The threat of closing down of Strait of Hormuz, is therefore partially being catered. Goldman Sachs, a US-based investment house, is said to have estimated that a blockade of this key passage could push up prices above $100 per barrel. A widening of the conflict could cause a greater price spike. JPMorgan has expressed fear of surge in oil prices in case the Strait of Hormuz is closed due the war in the Middle East and the hike in prices could go to US$120 to US$130 a barrel. The bank analyses this forecast to be a ‘severe but a low risk.’
The key question, I argue is not just about supply and demand but about confidence of the countries in continued economic well-being. If markets begin to fear that diplomacy has failed and wider war is inevitable, even strong reserves may not stop panic-driven price spikes or hoarding. In that sense, strategic oil stockpiles are not just barrels in tanks, they are a symbol of preparedness, and a silent plea for peace.
6. The Wars by Proxies
Iran has exploited its Proxies: Hamas in Palestine and Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, Houthis in Yemen, and militias in Iraq and Syria against Israel. The Non-Contact War between Israel and Iran war has still not seen any of these proxies active since 12 June 2025, when Israel hit Iran with over 200 missiles that wiped out its military commanders and nuclear scientists and destroyed atomic sites. The Proxies can activate multiple frontlines and can destabilise the entire Middle East. These proxy forces can disrupt trade through the Arabian Sea, especially at the Strait of Hormuz, and force world powers to take sides or respond militarily, thereby risking a broader conflict. ISIS has its own nuisance and if drawn into war will impact the outcome. Though these terrorist organisations have been badly beaten and their power and cadre have been drastically reduced, their nuisance value is a threat. Iran has been battered heavily and, in this scenario, will the Proxies be able to make an impact is debatable. In any case, Israel will have to weigh its air offensive carefully and may limit to Iran only. In case these terrorist organisations are hit in Lebanon, Syria or Yaman, the situation may further escalate war.
Is World War III Imminent?
The current situation between Israel and Iran is grim is arguably the darkest the Middle East has seen in decades. The Operation Rising Lion strikes have dramatically shifted the region’s balance. Israel and Iran have have crossed conventional red lines and its now “Do or Die” attempts by both sides. Iran’s top military commanders and nuclear scientists have been neutralised, and strategic infrastructure reduced to rubble, the regime is under enormous pressure to retaliate further. On the other hand, Israel, having demonstrated its military superiority, remains on high alert, preparing for a multi-front war involving Hezbollah, Houthis, and regional militias. Involvement of Russia and China has not surfaced so far and should that come out in open, the WW III is imminent. It is time for Russia to pay back to Iran for it helped Russia in its war with Ukraine. Iran has been playing proxy to China all this while. Will China come to aid of its proxy is a moot question. The threat and momentum is real and appears to be heading towards full-scale escalation. The World War in its application is already in full swing without any formal announcement. Use of nuclear weapons is the only savour so far but the risk of miscalculation, cyber sabotage, or pre-emptive nuclear action is dangerously real. Economic tremors are being felt through rising oil prices, market volatility, and interrupted trade flows. International diplomatic institutions have so far failed to mediate effectively. President Trump has also expressed willingness to mediate between Israel and Iran. How will that happen when the US is supporting Israel wholeheartedly; the world is a silent spectator.
And yet, a narrow window of hope remains.
That hope hinges on three global powers: the US, Russia and China. All of them wield considerable influence over Israel or Iran, and have deep stakes in avoiding a third world war. No country in the world aspires for world war as that would impact global stability and their economic interests. If Washington, Moscow and Beijing rise above short-term strategic ambitions and push Tel Aviv and Tehran directly toward an emergency diplomatic framework, a path to de-escalation might still emerge.
But that leads us to the defining question of our time:
Will it happen?
Will strategic restraint overcome nationalist fervour?
Will global powers act as peacemakers or opportunists?
The answer to these questions may well determine not just the fate of the Middle East, but the fate of our generation.
The world is watching and history is waiting to be written.
Final Thoughts. The Israel-Iran conflict may not directly trigger World War III today, but the architecture of risk is already in place. A few wrong moves, miscalculations, or escalations could quickly shift the balance. The countries, diplomats, strategists, business leaders, and citizens alike must recognise that peace is not passive. It is a deliberate pursuit. The hope persists.
Let’s stay informed, engaged, and hopeful but never complacent. The unprecedented assault by Israel involved over 200 aircraft and precision strikes aimed at dismantling Iran’s military and nuclear infrastructure. Some of the reported losses of leaders and nuclear sites are listed in the appendix attached.
Among those killed were four top IRGC commanders:
Maj. Gen. Hossein Salami, IRGC Commander-in-Chief
Maj. Gen. Mohammad Bagheri, Chief of Staff of Iran’s Armed Forces
Maj. Gen. Gholam Ali Rashid, head of Khatam-al-Anbiya HQ
Maj. Gen. Amir Ali Hajizadeh, commander of the IRGC Aerospace Force
Ali Shamkhani, Supreme Leader’s advisor.
The strikes also claimed the lives of several leading nuclear scientists:
Fereydoun Abbasi-Davani (former head, Atomic Energy Organization)
Mohammad Mehdi Tehranchi (Laser Plasma expert, Islamic Azad University rector)
Others. Abdolhamid Manouchehr, Ahmad Reza Zolfaghari, Amir Hossein Feghi, and Motallebzadeh
Key sites hit included:
Natanz uranium enrichment facility, with above-ground PFEP destroyed
Fordow and Isfahan nuclear plants (partial damage)
Arak heavy-water reactor
Missile launchers and depots in Tehran, Tabriz, Kermanshah, Esfahan, and Piranshahr
Petroleum Assets Destroyed in the Conflict
Israel targetted Iran’s South Pars natural gas plant (Phase 14) and oil depots in Shahran and Shahr-Rey, igniting regional energy concerns. This is the alargest natural gas plant of Iran and will have impact on its global trade.
Iran retaliated with waves of missiles and drones on 15-16 June 2025 and struck Israeli cities of Tel Aviv, Haifa, Bat Yam, Rishon LeZion, Ramat Gan, Tamra, and military hub Kirya. Damaged targets included the Weizmann Institute of Science, Bazan oil refinery in Haifa, and residential areas that killed over 10 Israelis dead and hundreds injured.
This tit-for-tat exchange marks the most significant Israel–Iran confrontation of 21st century that has killed Iranian senior leadership, commanders and nuclear scientists. It has crippling military and energy infrastructure of Iran and it raises urgent alarms about the potential for global escalation.