Air power has been a decisive factor in every conflict from large air campaigns in World War II to shock and awe in Middle East wars, the Gulf Wars, the Israel-Iran 12-day war, and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war. In the Indian context too, air power has played a defining role in the 1971 war, the Kargil conflict, and punitive strikes of Jabba Top. The importance of air power is unlikely to diminish in the foreseeable future, and it will continue to be the principal choice in the imposition of a nation’s will or to deter our adversary.
Closer home, two major air power events are currently in focus in India. IAF has phased out MiG-21 aircraft after 62 years of glorious service, and IAF is on the cusp of celebrating its 94th founding day, on 08 October 2025. Both these events come in the backdrop of stellar performance by the IAF in Operation Sindoor, by virtually rendering the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) irrelevant in a swift 88-hour operation. The debilitating blow to Pakistan in general and PAF in particular once again drove home the primacy of air power.
Fighter squadron strength consequent to phasing out of the MiG-21 aircraft has dropped to less than 29 squadrons, the lowest in the last 60 years, and almost at par with squadron strength during the 1965 war. Similarity in numbers is troubling, especially when viewed in the context of technological advancement by our adversaries, particularly China. Both Pakistan and China are investing heavily in air power. At the current growth rate, the threat will become truly challenging by 2030, when IAF is likely to field around 30-31 fighter squadrons against 25-26 in PAF and 50 squadrons equivalent in PLAAF.
Winston Churchill said, “The future of our nation is forever bound up in the development of Air Power. Air control can be established by superiority in numbers, by better employment, by better equipment, or by a combination of these factors.” Recently, the USAF Chief said, “If you want to send a clear message, you can send air power. You can do a strike, you can do humanitarian relief, whatever it is, you can send that message and then get right back into status quo ante, right?” Air power allows the nation to engage to disengage and not get entangled, which would happen with other forces. Both these quotes mean so much in the Indian context as we face two belligerent neighbours who are closely colluding with each other.
Air Chief Marshal AP Singh has gone on record to say that the IAF needs to induct anywhere between 35 and 40 fighter aircraft every year to make up for the depleting fighter aircraft strength of the IAF. This is a tall ask and can only be fulfilled by inducting two types of aircraft concurrently, like the LCA MK 1A and MRFA (IAF has forwarded a formal proposal to GoI for 114 Rafales through the G2G route). This is, however, unlikely to happen over the next three years in view of the contractual process for fresh procurement and the slow upsurge in supply of GE 404 engines.
Prophetic words of Sir Winston Churchill are as relevant today as they were during WW-II. The three aspects of air power enunciated by him were superiority in numbers, employment philosophy, and better equipment or latest technology. Any contemporary Air Force has to rely on these three factors to deter, coerce, or punish. While the IAF has excellent training, tactics, techniques, and procedures for operational employment of air power, what it lacks today is numbers and balance between legacy and modern platforms in virtually every facet of its resources. Depleting fighter aircraft strength, adverse legacy to modern fighter ratio, shortages in ISR resources, both airborne and space-based, limited force multipliers like UAVs, ISTAR, Air refuelers, and AWACS, and an aging helicopter fleet.
Present and future air warfare is not about fighter aircraft alone. Air power needs a mix of modern and legacy fighters, force multipliers like AWACS/ AEW&C, Special mission aircraft for ISR and SIGINT, air-to-air refuelers, drones, UAVs with both autonomous capabilities as well as part of a networked multi-domain environment, including MUM-T, multi-layered integrated air defence, and robust and redundant command and control. This calls for a balanced and comprehensive growth of air power.
Current air power challenges are a shortage of fighter aircraft and a slow pace of induction of LCA Mk1A due to integration and engine issues. Delays in the finalisation of the contract for GE 414 engines for LCA Mk2, which may impact aircraft induction. SU-30 MKI is now more than two decades old and needs immediate radar, EW, systems, and weapon upgrades to meet future air warfare demands. Then, there is slow progress on MRFA and a void in fifth-generation fighter aircraft till AMCA is inducted in 2035.
Present and future warfare is all about long-range weapons in an integrated networked environment, which relies heavily on space-based capability. Space-Based Surveillance phase III has been approved and will take some time to be realized; however, growing space warfare capabilities of adversaries demand rapid population of communication satellites in Low Earth Orbits (LEO) and persistent space-based ISR for dynamic targeting and battle damage assessment. This needs to be augmented by airborne ISR assets like ISTAR, ELINT/SIGINT aircraft, and UAVs. High Altitude Pseudo Satellites or platforms are also needed for persistent ISR, and so is the necessity to populate near space with suitable platforms.
Drones have revolutionised warfare. Significant innovation has taken place in this field, both in offensive and defensive capabilities, kinetic as well as non-kinetic. Growth in the usage of drones has led to rapid development of counter-drone equipment, further leading to innovation in drone operations in GNSS and RF denied environments. However, drones only have specific applications and cannot replace manned aircraft, especially fighters, in the foreseeable future. India needs to direct substantial effort in producing MALE/ HALE UAVs, Ghatak UCAV, and some more types to ensure diversity and survivability. Efforts must be accelerated to produce a loyal wingman UAV along with LCA Mk2, along with an option to integrate the same with SU-30 MKI upgrade and AMCA.
The growing importance of Artificial Intelligence, Robotics, Quantum computing, Quantum sensing, advanced cryptography, and electronic warfare will also affect the application of air power in future conflicts. Unmanned autonomous systems and the ability to counter them will be an integral air power function. Training of air warriors in all these technologies and their penetration in routine tasks is essential to leverage their computational power. Quick absorption of technologies would expedite effective operational deployment. This needs to be a whole-of-environment approach involving coordinated efforts from the other two services, especially in software protocols and development of source codes for interoperability of all platforms and systems.
All future operations will be multi-domain involving integration of networks in all five domains with special emphasis on cyber and space for decision support advantage over the adversary and development of a kill chain followed by kill web. This will necessitate commonality in datalinks and software protocols for seamless real-time data sharing to evolve a stealthy air-to-air weapon solution. Thousands of drones, missiles, surface-to-air weapons, and diverse aerial platforms will make airspace management a major task. AI/ ML infusion is needed into command-and-control systems for decision support and automation of fire control in selected volumes of airspace.
Strategic imperatives for the growth of airpower in the Indian context rest on four pillars. Firstly, deterrence is credible only if the air force is technologically relevant. India can maintain stability in the subcontinent through credible air deterrence. Secondly, air power characteristics allow rapid response and flexibility, something IAF has exhibited repeatedly from 1948 till Op Sindoor and as the first responder in HADR missions. Thirdly, technology and industrial growth are stimulated by the expansion of the aerospace sector. This would in turn, support Atmanirbharta, LCA Mk2, AMCA, IMRH, LCH, Ghatak, Rudram, Astra, Brahmos, and Akash, spur innovation, and also contribute towards India’s economic growth, so air power growth and economic growth are interdependent. Lastly, aerospace power lies at the heart of integrated operations since aerospace power creates a favourable environment for the application of other forces. Joint planning and integrated operations enhance the effectiveness of air power.
The goal of air power growth can be achieved by streamlining procurement processes, early procurement of Rafale as projected by IAF, accelerating LCA Mk2, AMCA, off-the-shelf procurement of at least three squadrons of fifth-generation fighter aircraft, long-range futuristic modular weapons, electronic warfare equipment, and CUAS equipment, especially based on high-powered lasers and microwave. Development of unmanned and autonomous systems enhances air defence capability against drones, missiles, and hypersonic weapons. Finally, spurring research and development by private industry.
A lot has been written on the depleting fighter strength of the IAF and the importance of arresting this trend, followed by reversing it to meet future threats. Major lessons have been learnt from recent conflicts and Op Sindoor. Some measures which could assist faster growth of Indian air power are: –
- Allocation of a higher capital budget to the IAF.
- Detailed review of IAF requirements and identification of areas in which expenditure can be pruned.
- Complete overhaul of laborious procurement procedures, which have plagued capital acquisitions for many decades.
- Need to develop expertise in MoD with career officers serving in the ministry for longer tenures to nurture a better understanding of operational requirements and technology.
- Research and development agencies need to be held accountable for the design and development of new technologies in consonance with the capability roadmap and future budget allocation. The present delays have seriously hampered air power capability development. A recent example is of PAF and PLAAF inducting PL-15 Long range BVR, which outranges Astra-I; therefore, induction of such a weapon system does not contribute to air power deterrence in time and space. A long-term vision with strict time lines is, therefore, inescapable.
- Need to establish a research incubator within the IAF to identify and work on specific future technologies in a collaborative manner with DRDO. This is important to establish the military application of future technologies.
- Industry, especially the PSUs, needs to be held accountable for time and cost overruns due to delays in production. If the PSUs can absorb cost overruns resulting from delayed production, then the cost calculations need a thorough review.
- Delayed outcomes are perhaps due to stakeholders working in silos. This needs to be overcome through procedural or structural changes.
Air power is the fulcrum on which deterrence, rapid response, and strategic influence rest. It will remain the cardinal instrument of strategic leverage in any future conflict. Progressive depletion in the strength of fighter squadrons, delays in design and development, production, and procurement have severely eroded the overall capability of the IAF in the last two decades. Rapidly evolving threats and the technology landscape demand innovative solutions and a nimble development and production process. Phasing out of MiG-21 is a reminder for the nation to institute measures for Indian air power to grow numerically, technologically, and strategically to be ready to meet the challenges of the future.
