A sudden surge in incidents in the Jammu region of the Union Territory of J and K has caught the attention of all. The raison d’être of Pakistan has always bordered on being an irritation for the ruling dispensation. At times, it is quite evident that the creation of Pakistan was probably just to disrupt the peace and tranquillity that Indians seek. However, that is an altogether different topic for debate. What is definitely interesting is the boldness with which terrorist actions are being carried out against the Indian Army.
It is noteworthy that these incidents have seen a rise in certain Hindu-dominated areas of J & K. The enemy’s aim is to highlight the disenchantment of the entire population of J & K to build a narrative for the international community. The focus of the strikes has been the Indian Army in areas where the Army is not the dominant force undertaking operations—areas where the Army is deployed only in a conventional role, thus allowing terrorists much-needed space to operate.
A significant point to highlight is that the number of terrorists operating in the region has increased. Extreme vigilance along the LC has drastically reduced infiltration, so the numerical strength of terrorists cannot be built up quickly. Hence, there can be two possible explanations. First, gaps in the International Boundary could have been exploited. These gaps are river courses which, though patrolled, can allow a trickle if local intelligence engagement has weakened. Although the region in question is astride the border in J & K, the border areas in Punjab cannot be ruled out. Naysayers might quickly ask why only Punjab. This is elaborated further in the subsequent paragraphs. The second scenario is the arrival of terrorists as foreign nationals from a third country. However, this requires deep-seated collusion between conspiring countries, which, though difficult, will get detected in the long run and has the potential to disrupt relations.
Why Punjab?
Punjab has seen systemic decay over time. In hindsight, the disruption of the PM’s convoy was a glaring instance that should have set alarm bells ringing. Recently, the election of an anti-nationalist in Punjab is also substantial evidence that there exists an environment, albeit small, that can provide a cosy corner to deviants from across the border. Furthermore, the areas where the incidents have taken place are adjoining Punjab at Pathankot.
There have been previous incidents where small groups of terrorists have approached isolated houses in villages at Hiranagar and Samba, coercing them for administrative support. The area is home to staunch nationalists, and each of these interactions has been reported in the shortest time possible, leading to the mobilisation of QRTs and addressing the issue at hand. Hence, for a group of terrorists to come into an area, sustain itself over time, conduct reconnaissance, organise an ambush, and get away with it will require substantial support from proximal areas.
How this support has transpired is a classic case study. The vested interests of a few have ensured a demographic transition in many areas near jungles, riverbanks, and border areas. The affiliation of these new immigrants is suspect since refugee crises are the first step in the Islamic way of war. If one keenly connects the dots, some of these settlers do not seem to belong to the area. Where have they come from? Additionally, the compromise of a few locals for monetary gains can also contribute to these misadventures. The creation of this support base by virtue of common religion, extremist beliefs, or coercion is a threat. Therefore, cross-border terrorism is likely to have taken sanctuary in this population. In-depth engagement and prompt action are needed to neutralise this enemy endeavour.
A very interesting development has been the rampant use of drones in enhancing terrorists’ supply lines. Recent instances have clearly shown weapons, ammunition, and contraband being dropped in Indian territory. This capability enables enemy agents to travel light and source supplies from caches dumped with local support.
The conduct of these incidents would have required a high standard of training with substantial battle hardening. The DGP J & K has reiterated that the terrorists were most likely special forces soldiers of the Pakistan Army. The enemy’s frustration is evident, especially when the support base of these elements has been completely decimated in the valley and surrounding areas.
The mushrooming of new support systems is a cause for concern and raises some uncomfortable questions regarding law and order. Perhaps the recent dismissals of police personnel and government servants from service are evidence enough that a correct approach is now being adopted.
Largely, the population of J & K is peace-loving and proud to be identified as Indians, but the existence of a few responsible for creating disenchantment must be addressed. Swift justice will neutralise their efforts to vilify the Indian state and spread seditious propaganda. The security forces have been committed to contesting terrorism to create a peaceful environment, but with the recent surge in activity, the modus operandi will require modifications. The men on the ground will always have answers on what needs to be done. It would be prudent to get their insights before charting the next steps, rather than relying on armchair enthusiasts with no skin in the game.
Very meticulously brought out by Col Gairola